Probit regression (average partial effects): determinants of severe shock incidence by type of shock
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe climate | Severe violence | Severe prices | Negative COVID-19 effect | |
| Number of climate shocks | −0.13 | 0.41*** | −0.24** | |
| (0.115) | (0.122) | (0.119) | ||
| Number violence shocks | 0.10 | 0.21*** | 0.21*** | |
| (0.080) | (0.057) | (0.055) | ||
| Number of spoilage shocks | 1.21*** | 0.28 | 0.38 | −0.06 |
| (0.324) | (0.271) | (0.278) | (0.275) | |
| Number of price shocks | 0.50*** | 0.29*** | 0.36*** | |
| (0.084) | (0.059) | (0.057) | ||
| Negative COVID-19 effect (base no negative effects) | −0.31 | 0.19 | 0.36*** | |
| (0.193) | (0.137) | (0.132) | ||
| Gender (base male) | −1.15** | 0.49* | −0.02 | −0.16 |
| (0.557) | (0.269) | (0.307) | (0.265) | |
| Size (base small) | 0.08 | −0.07 | −0.48*** | −0.20 |
| (0.227) | (0.146) | (0.146) | (0.132) | |
| Region (base north) | −0.57 | −1.46*** | −3.45*** | −0.20 |
| (0.849) | (0.474) | (0.590) | (0.434) | |
| General shocks in 2017 | −0.01 | |||
| (0.175) | ||||
| Violence shock in 2017 | 0.41* | |||
| (0.234) | ||||
| Price shock in 2017 | −0.04 | |||
| (0.130) | ||||
| Location (base rural) | 0.16 | 0.84*** | 0.69*** | −0.89*** |
| (0.215) | (0.169) | (0.168) | (0.181) | |
| Years violence presence | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| (0.042) | (0.023) | (0.021) | (0.026) | |
| Mean rainfall 2021 | −0.24 | 0.36 | 0.82*** | 0.38 |
| (0.369) | (0.262) | (0.208) | (0.236) | |
| Mean temperature 2021 | 0.18 | 0.18** | 0.39*** | −0.01 |
| (0.117) | (0.086) | (0.078) | (0.077) | |
| Age | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02*** |
| (0.012) | (0.008) | (0.009) | (0.008) | |
| Experience | −0.01 | 0.03*** | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| (0.014) | (0.009) | (0.010) | (0.009) | |
| Islamic (base: Christian) | −0.20 | 1.07*** | −0.16 | −0.19 |
| (0.354) | (0.302) | (0.298) | (0.244) | |
| Produces own maize (base 0) | −0.35 | 0.54*** | −0.25 | 0.06 |
| (0.357) | (0.182) | (0.190) | (0.180) | |
| Is part of an association (base 0) | 0.26 | 0.08 | −0.04 | 0.34** |
| (0.183) | (0.140) | (0.132) | (0.135) | |
| Constant | −6.74 | −8.87*** | −14.53*** | 0.27 |
| (4.534) | (3.266) | (2.802) | (2.913) | |
| Observations | 1,032 | 1,032 | 1,032 | 1,032 |
| McFadden R2 | 0.307 | 0.247 | 0.217 | 0.154 |
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe climate | Severe violence | Severe prices | Negative COVID-19 effect | |
| Number of climate shocks | −0.13 | 0.41*** | −0.24** | |
| (0.115) | (0.122) | (0.119) | ||
| Number violence shocks | 0.10 | 0.21*** | 0.21*** | |
| (0.080) | (0.057) | (0.055) | ||
| Number of spoilage shocks | 1.21*** | 0.28 | 0.38 | −0.06 |
| (0.324) | (0.271) | (0.278) | (0.275) | |
| Number of price shocks | 0.50*** | 0.29*** | 0.36*** | |
| (0.084) | (0.059) | (0.057) | ||
| Negative COVID-19 effect (base no negative effects) | −0.31 | 0.19 | 0.36*** | |
| (0.193) | (0.137) | (0.132) | ||
| Gender (base male) | −1.15** | 0.49* | −0.02 | −0.16 |
| (0.557) | (0.269) | (0.307) | (0.265) | |
| Size (base small) | 0.08 | −0.07 | −0.48*** | −0.20 |
| (0.227) | (0.146) | (0.146) | (0.132) | |
| Region (base north) | −0.57 | −1.46*** | −3.45*** | −0.20 |
| (0.849) | (0.474) | (0.590) | (0.434) | |
| General shocks in 2017 | −0.01 | |||
| (0.175) | ||||
| Violence shock in 2017 | 0.41* | |||
| (0.234) | ||||
| Price shock in 2017 | −0.04 | |||
| (0.130) | ||||
| Location (base rural) | 0.16 | 0.84*** | 0.69*** | −0.89*** |
| (0.215) | (0.169) | (0.168) | (0.181) | |
| Years violence presence | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| (0.042) | (0.023) | (0.021) | (0.026) | |
| Mean rainfall 2021 | −0.24 | 0.36 | 0.82*** | 0.38 |
| (0.369) | (0.262) | (0.208) | (0.236) | |
| Mean temperature 2021 | 0.18 | 0.18** | 0.39*** | −0.01 |
| (0.117) | (0.086) | (0.078) | (0.077) | |
| Age | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02*** |
| (0.012) | (0.008) | (0.009) | (0.008) | |
| Experience | −0.01 | 0.03*** | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| (0.014) | (0.009) | (0.010) | (0.009) | |
| Islamic (base: Christian) | −0.20 | 1.07*** | −0.16 | −0.19 |
| (0.354) | (0.302) | (0.298) | (0.244) | |
| Produces own maize (base 0) | −0.35 | 0.54*** | −0.25 | 0.06 |
| (0.357) | (0.182) | (0.190) | (0.180) | |
| Is part of an association (base 0) | 0.26 | 0.08 | −0.04 | 0.34** |
| (0.183) | (0.140) | (0.132) | (0.135) | |
| Constant | −6.74 | −8.87*** | −14.53*** | 0.27 |
| (4.534) | (3.266) | (2.802) | (2.913) | |
| Observations | 1,032 | 1,032 | 1,032 | 1,032 |
| McFadden | 0.307 | 0.247 | 0.217 | 0.154 |
Note(s): Robust standard errors in parentheses
***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1
Source(s): Authors’ calculations from authors’ own survey data
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