Performance comparison of various models
| Year | Data | NGBM(1,1) γ = −0.5028 | FANGBM(1,1) γ = 3.6052 r = 0.0807 | Unbiased NGBM(1,1) γ = −0.5226 | SANDGMO(1,1) = -0.0032 = 0.9999 γ = 0.2628 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Values | Values | Values | Values | ||
| 2018 | 6,522 | – | – | – | – |
| 2019 | 6,427 | 6426.7688 | 6427.4246 | 6426.9684 | 6400.3324 |
| 2020 | 5,711 | 6221.4161 | 6610.9883 | 6255.5001 | 5739.8815 |
| 2021 | 6,980 | 6560.9238 | 6893.8533 | 6553.9566 | 7109.0826 |
| 2022 | 7,528 | 7163.6831 | 7237.2603 | 7124.4849 | 7224.1300 |
| 2023 | 7,623 | 7970.0554 | 7627.8155 | 7899.0851 | 7895.7355 |
| MAE | 328.2192 | 256.4230 | 330.0351 | 152.2474 | |
| RMSE | 371.3014 | 424.7242 | 378.6927 | 192.3171 | |
| MAPE(avg)% | 4.8674% | 4.1850% | 4.9241% | 2.0769% | |
| 2024 | 8,194 | 8970.3468 | 8060.1734 | 8864.5618 | 8203.9107 |
| MAE | 776.3468 | 133.8266 | 670.5618 | 9.9107 | |
| RMSE | 776.3468 | 133.8266 | 670.5618 | 9.9107 | |
| MAPE(avg)% | 9.4746% | 1.6332% | 8.1836% | 0.1210% | |
| Year | Data | NGBM(1,1) | FANGBM(1,1) | Unbiased NGBM(1,1) | SANDGMO(1,1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Values | Values | Values | Values | ||
| 2018 | 6,522 | – | – | – | – |
| 2019 | 6,427 | 6426.7688 | 6427.4246 | 6426.9684 | 6400.3324 |
| 2020 | 5,711 | 6221.4161 | 6610.9883 | 6255.5001 | 5739.8815 |
| 2021 | 6,980 | 6560.9238 | 6893.8533 | 6553.9566 | 7109.0826 |
| 2022 | 7,528 | 7163.6831 | 7237.2603 | 7124.4849 | 7224.1300 |
| 2023 | 7,623 | 7970.0554 | 7627.8155 | 7899.0851 | 7895.7355 |
| MAE | 328.2192 | 256.4230 | 330.0351 | ||
| RMSE | 371.3014 | 424.7242 | 378.6927 | ||
| MAPE(avg)% | 4.8674% | 4.1850% | 4.9241% | ||
| 2024 | 8,194 | 8970.3468 | 8060.1734 | 8864.5618 | 8203.9107 |
| MAE | 776.3468 | 133.8266 | 670.5618 | ||
| RMSE | 776.3468 | 133.8266 | 670.5618 | ||
| MAPE(avg)% | 9.4746% | 1.6332% | 8.1836% | ||