Assumptions entailed in the construction of the different scenarios
| Scenario | Variable | Main assumption |
|---|---|---|
| Historical trend and current state | Years | 1990–2018 |
| Energy production | IEA | |
| Energy use | IEA | |
| Efficiency of electricity generation | 23.29% in 1990; 29.29% in 2018 | |
| Efficiency of oil refineries | 100% | |
| Electricity transmission and distribution losses | 5.6% in 1990; 1.9% in 2018 | |
| Electricity generation capacity (MW) | 3,920.9 in 2018 | |
| Baseline scenario | Scenario period: first year | 2019 |
| End year | 2040 | |
| Growth rate of local demand for electricity (accumulated) | ≈ 0.9% per annum (39.7%) | |
| Growth rate of local demand for natural gas (accumulated) | ≈1% per annum (20.4%) | |
| Growth rate of local demand for petroleum products (accumulated) | ≈1% per annum (21.6%) | |
| All other variables remain almost constant | ||
| Mitigation scenario | NEEAP | The initiatives and savings are assumed to continue after 2025 (the end year of NEEAP) |
| NREAP | The initiatives and savings are assumed to continue after 2035 (the end year of NREAP) | |
| Additional measures |
| |
| Scenario | Variable | Main assumption |
|---|---|---|
| Historical trend and current state | Years | 1990–2018 |
| Energy production | IEA | |
| Energy use | IEA | |
| Efficiency of electricity generation | 23.29% in 1990; 29.29% in 2018 | |
| Efficiency of oil refineries | 100% | |
| Electricity transmission and distribution losses | 5.6% in 1990; 1.9% in 2018 | |
| Electricity generation capacity (MW) | 3,920.9 in 2018 | |
| Baseline scenario | Scenario period: first year | 2019 |
| End year | 2040 | |
| Growth rate of local demand for electricity (accumulated) | ≈ 0.9% per annum (39.7%) | |
| Growth rate of local demand for natural gas (accumulated) | ≈1% per annum (20.4%) | |
| Growth rate of local demand for petroleum products (accumulated) | ≈1% per annum (21.6%) | |
| All other variables remain almost constant | ||
| Mitigation scenario | NEEAP | The initiatives and savings are assumed to continue after 2025 (the end year of NEEAP) |
| NREAP | The initiatives and savings are assumed to continue after 2035 (the end year of NREAP) | |
| Additional measures | Projects in the oil and gas sector ( Measures that reduce emissions from the residential and transportation sectors by 30% and 1.9%, respectively, in 2040, built additionally on Installation of solar panels on all residential buildings Electricity and natural gas consumption of industrial sectors is reduced by 6% and 43%, respectively, in 2040 Improved power generation efficiency from 29% to 33% Landfill gas is used for electricity generation by a 15 MW power plant, starting from 2025 ( | |
IEA means International Energy Agency, NEEAP means National Energy Efficiency Action Plan, NOGA means National Oil and Gas Authority, NREAP means National Renewable Energy Action Plan
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