Some empirical work on the AfCFTA
| Authors | Methodology | Theme | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abrego et al. (2019) | MEGC | The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare gain estimates from a general equilibrium model | The findings of Abrego et al. (2019) reveal significant potential gains in trade and welfare from trade liberalization in Africa |
| Geda and Yimer (2023) | Trade indices and gravity model | The trade effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): an empirical analysis | Both authors found in their results with the index that the AfCFTA Agreement could have limited effects in terms of trade creation and a strong possibility of trade detour. On the other hand, the model results note a real trade potential for the AfCFTA. When the two methods are combined, the AfCFTA may boost intra-African trade (exports) by US$72.7 billion on average annually between 2015 and 2017. However, given the results based on trade indices, this positive result should be taken with caution |
| Masunda (2020) | Gravity model | The implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area for intra-COMESA trade | The author has found that the AfCFTA has potential for trade in the COMESA region. Above all, the study shows that it has great potential for the region’s exports |
| Charles (2021) | Gravity model | Continental African Free Trade Area: Does Côte d'Ivoire have commercial potential? | Charles’s results reveal significant trade potential for Côte d'Ivoire in Africa, in at least 25 countries. These include 8 countries in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) |
| Bayale et al. (2022) | WITS-SMART simulation model | Potential trade, welfare and income implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for Ghana: an application of the partial equilibrium model | The authors conclude that while consumer welfare will improve, total trade effects in Ghana are expected to rise by US$148.3 million. However, the nation may soon face revenue losses of $8.604 million due to a decline in tariff revenues |
| Chauvin et al. (2016) | CGE model | Impacts of the AfCFTA on trade, growth and well-being in Africa | According to the authors, trade patterns inside and between African nations as well as between different sectors would shift asymmetrically as a result of the AfCFTA. Additionally, they discover that while the long-term effects of the AfCFTA are largely favorable, the short-term effects are typically fairly minimal |
| World Bank (2020) | CGE model | Distributional effects of the AfCFTA on poverty and employment | This World Bank report states that the AfCFTA’s adoption would result in a net rise in the number of workers in the energy-intensive manufacturing sector, as well as an increase in job prospects and earnings for unskilled workers and a reduction in the gender wage gap |
| Authors | Methodology | Theme | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEGC | The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare gain estimates from a general equilibrium model | The findings of | |
| Trade indices and gravity model | The trade effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): an empirical analysis | Both authors found in their results with the index that the AfCFTA Agreement could have limited effects in terms of trade creation and a strong possibility of trade detour. On the other hand, the model results note a real trade potential for the AfCFTA. When the two methods are combined, the AfCFTA may boost intra-African trade (exports) by US$72.7 billion on average annually between 2015 and 2017. However, given the results based on trade indices, this positive result should be taken with caution | |
| Gravity model | The implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area for intra-COMESA trade | The author has found that the AfCFTA has potential for trade in the COMESA region. Above all, the study shows that it has great potential for the region’s exports | |
| Gravity model | Continental African Free Trade Area: Does Côte d'Ivoire have commercial potential? | Charles’s results reveal significant trade potential for Côte d'Ivoire in Africa, in at least 25 countries. These include 8 countries in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) | |
| WITS-SMART simulation model | Potential trade, welfare and income implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for Ghana: an application of the partial equilibrium model | The authors conclude that while consumer welfare will improve, total trade effects in Ghana are expected to rise by US$148.3 million. However, the nation may soon face revenue losses of $8.604 million due to a decline in tariff revenues | |
| CGE model | Impacts of the AfCFTA on trade, growth and well-being in Africa | According to the authors, trade patterns inside and between African nations as well as between different sectors would shift asymmetrically as a result of the AfCFTA. Additionally, they discover that while the long-term effects of the AfCFTA are largely favorable, the short-term effects are typically fairly minimal | |
| CGE model | Distributional effects of the AfCFTA on poverty and employment | This World Bank report states that the AfCFTA’s adoption would result in a net rise in the number of workers in the energy-intensive manufacturing sector, as well as an increase in job prospects and earnings for unskilled workers and a reduction in the gender wage gap |
Source(s): Authors
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