Table 4 Results of the Spatial Durbin...

Table 4

Results of the Spatial Durbin Model

	Mean Coef	Std. Dev	0.025Q	0.975Q
Population	0.1048	0.0180	0.0537	0.4624
Population change	0.1566	0.1158	0.0085	0.5515
Average income	0.0199	0.0302	0.0003	0.3819
Tertiary education	−0.2192	0.0990	−0.3093	0.0805
Unemployment rate	−0.7416	0.3164	−1.0846	−0.4008
Dependency ratio	−0.0946	0.0296	−0.1371	−0.0358
Social infrastructure expenditure	0.0266	0.0239	0.0054	0.0710
Share municipal revenue	0.1212	0.0281	0.0656	0.4886
Debt	−0.0623	0.0200	−0.1022	−0.0215
Financial leeway	0.3754	0.0125	0.1081	0.7288
Mean survival probability 2008–2010	0.0412	0.0159	0.0053	0.0700
Risk group medium	−0.0024	0.0005	−0.0037	−0.0015
Risk group high	−0.0181	0.0065	−0.0356	−0.0054
Time bounce back/forward	−0.0036	0.0009	−0.0058	−0.0017
W * Population	−0.1071	0.0342	−0.2988	0.1769
W * Population change	0.2045	0.2426	0.0479	0.5816
W * Average income	0.0110	0.0397	−0.0944	0.3538
W * Tertiary education	0.3937	0.1563	0.1004	0.7186
W * Unemployment	−0.0872	0.0400	−0.1153	−0.0119
W * Dependency ratio	−0.0510	0.0318	−0.0678	0.2045
W * Social infrastructure expenditure	0.0936	0.3727	0.0024	0.4129
W * Share municipal revenue	0.0113	0.0530	−0.0014	0.4225
W * Debt	0.0210	0.0748	−0.0924	0.1724
W * Financial leeway	0.0448	0.0306	0.0060	0.4206
W * Mean survival probability 2008–2010	0.0934	0.0340	0.0203	0.4039
W * Risk group medium	−0.0069	0.0100	−0.1873	0.3143
W * Risk group high	−0.0063	0.0135	−0.2095	0.3415
W * Time bounce back/forward	0.0044	0.0020	0.0009	0.0083
Rho	0.3098	0.0037	0.3025	0.3171
Observations	2093
Years	12
Log pseudo marginal likelihood	2439.172
Deviance information criterion	4832.41
Number of iterations	10,000
Burn In	2,000

	Mean Coef	Std. Dev	0.025Q	0.975Q
Population	0.1048	0.0180	0.0537	0.4624
Population change	0.1566	0.1158	0.0085	0.5515
Average income	0.0199	0.0302	0.0003	0.3819
Tertiary education	−0.2192	0.0990	−0.3093	0.0805
Unemployment rate	−0.7416	0.3164	−1.0846	−0.4008
Dependency ratio	−0.0946	0.0296	−0.1371	−0.0358
Social infrastructure expenditure	0.0266	0.0239	0.0054	0.0710
Share municipal revenue	0.1212	0.0281	0.0656	0.4886
Debt	−0.0623	0.0200	−0.1022	−0.0215
Financial leeway	0.3754	0.0125	0.1081	0.7288
Mean survival probability 2008–2010	0.0412	0.0159	0.0053	0.0700
Risk group medium	−0.0024	0.0005	−0.0037	−0.0015
Risk group high	−0.0181	0.0065	−0.0356	−0.0054
Time bounce back/forward	−0.0036	0.0009	−0.0058	−0.0017
W * Population	−0.1071	0.0342	−0.2988	0.1769
W * Population change	0.2045	0.2426	0.0479	0.5816
W * Average income	0.0110	0.0397	−0.0944	0.3538
W * Tertiary education	0.3937	0.1563	0.1004	0.7186
W * Unemployment	−0.0872	0.0400	−0.1153	−0.0119
W * Dependency ratio	−0.0510	0.0318	−0.0678	0.2045
W * Social infrastructure expenditure	0.0936	0.3727	0.0024	0.4129
W * Share municipal revenue	0.0113	0.0530	−0.0014	0.4225
W * Debt	0.0210	0.0748	−0.0924	0.1724
W * Financial leeway	0.0448	0.0306	0.0060	0.4206
W * Mean survival probability 2008–2010	0.0934	0.0340	0.0203	0.4039
W * Risk group medium	−0.0069	0.0100	−0.1873	0.3143
W * Risk group high	−0.0063	0.0135	−0.2095	0.3415
W * Time bounce back/forward	0.0044	0.0020	0.0009	0.0083
Rho	0.3098	0.0037	0.3025	0.3171
Observations	2093
Years	12
Log pseudo marginal likelihood	2439.172
Deviance information criterion	4832.41
Number of iterations	10,000
Burn In	2,000

Note(s): The dependent variable is the fiscal sustainability (moving 3-year average of the revenue-expenditure ratio) of a municipality. In Bayesian models, credible intervals are utilized instead of confidence intervals, providing a range of values within which the true parameter value is likely to lie. When the credible interval includes zero, the corresponding coefficient may not have a statistically significant effect on the dependent variable

Source(s): Authors’ own work

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