Direct, indirect and total effects of the Bayesian Spatial Durbin Model
| Direct | Indirect | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 0.1002 | −0.1035 | −0.0033 |
| Population change | 0.1724 | 0.3509 | 0.5232 |
| Average income | 0.0210 | 0.0238 | 0.0447 |
| Tertiary education | 0.1989 | 0.4518 | 0.6507 |
| Unemployment rate | −0.6395 | 2.2778 | 1.6383 |
| Dependency ratio | −0.0666 | −0.0975 | −0.1641 |
| Social infrastructure expenditure | 0.2773 | 0.2443 | 0.5216 |
| Share municipal revenue | 0.1243 | 0.0678 | 0.1920 |
| Debt | −0.0317 | −0.0420 | −0.0737 |
| Financial leeway | 0.3855 | 0.2235 | 0.6089 |
| Mean survival probability 2008–2010 | 0.1118 | 0.0362 | 0.1480 |
| Risk group medium | 0.0020 | −0.0085 | −0.0065 |
| Risk group high | 0.0180 | −0.0009 | 0.0171 |
| Time bounce back/forward | 0.0034 | 0.0046 | 0.0079 |
| Direct | Indirect | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | −0.1035 | −0.0033 | |
| Population change | |||
| Average income | |||
| Tertiary education | 0.1989 | 0.6507 | |
| Unemployment rate | 2.2778 | 1.6383 | |
| Dependency ratio | −0.0975 | ||
| Social infrastructure expenditure | |||
| Share municipal revenue | |||
| Debt | −0.0420 | ||
| Financial leeway | |||
| Mean survival probability 2008–2010 | 0.0362 | 0.1480 | |
| Risk group medium | −0.0085 | −0.0065 | |
| Risk group high | −0.0009 | ||
| Time bounce back/forward |
Note(s): Direct effects refer to the impact of explanatory variables within a particular municipality on its own fiscal sustainability. Indirect effects describe the influence of explanatory variables in neighboring municipalities on the fiscal sustainability of a specific municipality. The total effect is the combined impact of direct and indirect effects. Coefficients with credible intervals that do not include zero are emphasized in italic font
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