Table 5

Direct, indirect and total effects of the Bayesian Spatial Durbin Model

DirectIndirectTotal
Population0.1002−0.1035−0.0033
Population change0.17240.35090.5232
Average income0.02100.02380.0447
Tertiary education0.19890.45180.6507
Unemployment rate−0.63952.27781.6383
Dependency ratio−0.0666−0.0975−0.1641
Social infrastructure expenditure0.27730.24430.5216
Share municipal revenue0.12430.06780.1920
Debt−0.0317−0.0420−0.0737
Financial leeway0.38550.22350.6089
Mean survival probability 2008–20100.11180.03620.1480
Risk group medium0.0020−0.0085−0.0065
Risk group high0.0180−0.00090.0171
Time bounce back/forward0.00340.00460.0079

Note(s): Direct effects refer to the impact of explanatory variables within a particular municipality on its own fiscal sustainability. Indirect effects describe the influence of explanatory variables in neighboring municipalities on the fiscal sustainability of a specific municipality. The total effect is the combined impact of direct and indirect effects. Coefficients with credible intervals that do not include zero are emphasized in italic font

Source(s): Authors’ own work

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