Table 6 Performance analysis results... | Emerald Publishing

Table 6

Performance analysis results

	Forecast error (%)
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
Probit models incorporating indirect sentiment measure
50% threshold
Type A^a	15.25	14.28	13.86
Type B^b	09.81	09.53	08.22
25% threshold
Type A^a	12.45	11.85	10.63
Type B^b	06.86	06.04	07.34
Probit models incorporating direct sentiment measure
50% threshold
Type A^a	11.48	10.75	10.45
Type B^b	03.25	03.13	04.27
25% threshold
Type A^a	07.45	07.18	05.84
Type B^b	03.81	04.63	04.96

	Forecast error (%)
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
Probit models incorporating indirect sentiment measure
50% threshold
Type A^a	15.25	14.28	13.86
Type B^b	09.81	09.53	08.22
25% threshold
Type A^a	12.45	11.85	10.63
Type B^b	06.86	06.04	07.34
Probit models incorporating direct sentiment measure
50% threshold
Type A^a	11.48	10.75	10.45
Type B^b	03.25	03.13	04.27
25% threshold
Type A^a	07.45	07.18	05.84
Type B^b	03.81	04.63	04.96

Note(s):

a

Probability of having a crisis without any signal emitted

b

Number of false signals among all signals

Source(s): Authors’ own work