Table 8 ARDL estimation results with...

Table 8

ARDL estimation results with structural break

CONS	SEA	SE	FDI	LDSP	CPI	BREAK
Panel A: ARDL (1, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1, 1) long-run coefficient estimates – DV: LnTRC
14.419 (1.618)	0.567^** (4.08)	−3.192^** (−3.07)	−0.252^** (−2.46)	0.895^* (1.38)	−0.293^** (−4.72)	−1.01 (−0.80)

CONS	SEA	SE	FDI	LDSP	CPI	BREAK
Panel A: ARDL (1, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1, 1) long-run coefficient estimates – DV: LnTRC
14.419 (1.618)	0.567^** (4.08)	−3.192^** (−3.07)	−0.252^** (−2.46)	0.895^* (1.38)	−0.293^** (−4.72)	−1.01 (−0.80)

Lag order	0	1	2	3
Panel B: ARDL (1, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1, 1) short-run coefficient estimates – DV: ∆LnTRC
∆SEA	−0.260 (−0.38)	−0.278 (−0.48)	−0.122 (−0.21)	−3.473 (−5.44) ^**
∆SE	2.303 (4.64)^**	−1.262 (−1.94) ^**	−1.831 (−2.74) ^**	2.609 (4.20) ^**
∆FDI	−0.305 (7.48) ^**	−0.150 (−4.24) ^**	−0.088 (−3.14) ^**	–
∆LDSP	0.797 (5.28)^**	−0.001 (−0.01)	−0.062 (−0.68)	0.568 (6.26) ^**
∆CPI	−0.162 (−6.19)^**	–	–	–
BREAK	0.272 (2.67)^**	–	–	–

Lag order	0	1	2	3
Panel B: ARDL (1, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1, 1) short-run coefficient estimates – DV: ∆LnTRC
∆SEA	−0.260 (−0.38)	−0.278 (−0.48)	−0.122 (−0.21)	−3.473 (−5.44) ^**
∆SE	2.303 (4.64)^**	−1.262 (−1.94) ^**	−1.831 (−2.74) ^**	2.609 (4.20) ^**
∆FDI	−0.305 (7.48) ^**	−0.150 (−4.24) ^**	−0.088 (−3.14) ^**	–
∆LDSP	0.797 (5.28)^**	−0.001 (−0.01)	−0.062 (−0.68)	0.568 (6.26) ^**
∆CPI	−0.162 (−6.19)^**	–	–	–
BREAK	0.272 (2.67)^**	–	–	–

ECT_t-1	χ²_SC	χ²_HET	χ²_N	χ²_FF	Adj. R²
Panel C: Diagnostic statistics tests
−0.83 (−9.85)^**	2.82 [0.11]	0.26 [0.90]	2.23 [0.33]	0.89 [0.39]	0.94

ECT_t-1	χ²_SC	χ²_HET	χ²_N	χ²_FF	Adj. R²
Panel C: Diagnostic statistics tests
−0.83 (−9.85)^**	2.82 [0.11]	0.26 [0.90]	2.23 [0.33]	0.89 [0.39]	0.94

Note(s): The model is estimated by setting the maximum lag to 4, and the optimum lag length is suggested based on AIC. ∆ is the first difference operator. Asterisk (^** and ^*) denote significance at 5% and 10% levels, respectively. The values in parentheses “(.)” in Panels A and B are the t-ratios, and values in parentheses “[.]” are the probability values of the LM test statistics. χ²_SC, χ²_HET, χ²N and χ²FF denote LM tests for serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, normality and functional form, respectively. DV refers to the dependent variable

Source(s): Author’s estimation from data

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