Overvaluation analysis
| High-MB-ratio firms | High-accruals firms | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ln_(1 + Count) | Ln_(1 + Count) | |||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Intercept | −0.170*** (−3.16) | −0.037 (−0.31) | −0.037 (−0.31) | −0.082 (−1.55) | −0.189 (−1.25) | −0.189 (−1.24) |
| Pilot × During | −0.049 (−1.57) | −0.057* (−1.78) | −0.057* (−1.77) | −0.037 (−1.17) | −0.031 (−0.95) | −0.031 (−0.94) |
| Pilot × After | −0.022 (−0.62) | −0.036 (−1.02) | −0.036 (−1.01) | −0.015 (−0.41) | −0.002 (−0.05) | −0.002 (−0.05) |
| Pilot | 0.019 (0.73) | −0.021 (−0.80) | ||||
| During | 0.013 (0.73) | 0.049** (2.39) | 0.049** (2.38) | −0.028 (−1.52) | −0.020 (−0.97) | −0.020 (−0.97) |
| After | −0.045** (−2.20) | 0.010 (0.42) | 0.010 (0.42) | −0.090*** (−4.14) | −0.067*** (−2.76) | −0.067*** (−2.75) |
| Control variable | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Fixed effect | No | Firm | Firm & Industry | No | Firm | Firm & Industry |
| Cluster standard error | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| R2 | 0.093 | 0.392 | 0.391 | 0.078 | 0.370 | 0.370 |
| Obs | 6,493 | 6,493 | 6,493 | 6,539 | 6,539 | 6,539 |
| Pilot (control) firms | 277 (567) | 277 (567) | 277 (567) | 291 (554) | 291 (554) | 291 (554) |
| High-MB-ratio firms | High-accruals firms | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| −0.170*** (−3.16) | −0.037 (−0.31) | −0.037 (−0.31) | −0.082 (−1.55) | −0.189 (−1.25) | −0.189 (−1.24) | |
| − | ||||||
| −0.022 (−0.62) | −0.036 (−1.02) | −0.036 (−1.01) | −0.015 (−0.41) | −0.002 (−0.05) | −0.002 (−0.05) | |
| 0.019 (0.73) | −0.021 (−0.80) | |||||
| 0.013 (0.73) | 0.049** (2.39) | 0.049** (2.38) | −0.028 (−1.52) | −0.020 (−0.97) | −0.020 (−0.97) | |
| −0.045** (−2.20) | 0.010 (0.42) | 0.010 (0.42) | −0.090*** (−4.14) | −0.067*** | −0.067*** | |
| Control variable | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Fixed effect | No | Firm | Firm & Industry | No | Firm | Firm & Industry |
| Cluster standard error | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 0.093 | 0.392 | 0.391 | 0.078 | 0.370 | 0.370 | |
| 6,493 | 6,493 | 6,493 | 6,539 | 6,539 | 6,539 | |
| Pilot (control) firms | 277 (567) | 277 (567) | 277 (567) | 291 (554) | 291 (554) | 291 (554) |
Note(s): This table reports the results of multivariate DID regressions on the number of M&As for the pilot and the control firms over the periods before, during, and after Regulation SHO's pilot program. The left and right columns report the results of high-MB-ratio and high-accruals firms, respectively. Firms with a high MB ratio or accruals are more likely to be overvalued. The accruals are calculated as follows
where Earningsi,t is earnings before extraordinary items (Compustat item No. 123) and CFOi,t is cash flow from operating activities (Compustat item No. 308). We use the information about the MB ratio and accruals in 2003, immediately before the start of Regulation SHO's pilot program, to group firms into two subsamples. We define a firm with an MB ratio (accruals) above the median as a high-MB-ratio (-accruals) firm. We estimate the multivariate DID panel regression as follows
In this model, Ln_(1 + Counti,t) is the natural logarithm of (1 + Counti,t), while Counti,t is the total number of M&As announced by firm i in a given year t. Piloti equals one if firm i belongs to the pilot group and zero otherwise. Aftert is a dummy variable that equals one if the year is during the Post period (2007 to 2010). Xi,t is the set of controlling variables including return on assets (ROA), market-to-book ratio (MB_Ratio), leverage (Leverage), size (Ln_MV), sales (Ln_Sales), capital expenditures (CAPEX), R&D expenditures (RDX), and cash and short-term investment (Cash). If we add a firm fixed effect in the panel regression, we omit Piloti in that column to avoid multicollinearity. We cluster the standard errors at the firm level. For simplicity, we do not report the coefficients of the control variables. ***, **, and * denote significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively
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