TRL transition probabilities through Phases I and II
| Final TRL at the end of Phase II | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
| Initial TRL at the beginning of Phase I | |||||||||
| 1 | – | – | 0.5 ± 0.3 | 0.5 ± 0.3 | 0.2 ± 0.2 | 0.2 ± 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 2 | – | 0.5 ± 0.3 | 2.1 ± 0.7 | 2.8 ± 0.8 | 1.6 ± 0.6 | 0.7 ± 0.4 | 0.2 ± 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | – | 0.7 ± 0.4 | 3.4 ± 0.8 | 14.4 ± 1.7 | 13.1 ± 1.6 | 8.3 ± 1.3 | 1.6 ± 0.6 | 0.2 ± 0.2 | – |
| 4 | – | – | 12.5 ± 0.5 | 13.1 ± 1.6 | 12.0 ± 1.6 | 10.1 ± 1.4 | 1.6 ± 0.6 | 0.5 ± 0.3 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.2 ± 0.2 | – | 0.5 ± 0.3 | 2.1 ± 0.7 | 3.0 ± 0.8 | 1.4 ± 0.6 | – | – |
| 6 | – | – | – | – | 0.2 ± 0.2 | 0.2 ± 0.2 | 1.4 ± 0.6 | 0.7 ± 0.4 | 0.5 ± 0.3 |
| 7 | – | – | – | – | 0.2 ± 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| 8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Final | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
| 1 | – | – | 0.5 ± 0.3 | 0.5 ± 0.3 | 0.2 ± 0.2 | 0.2 ± 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 2 | – | 0.5 ± 0.3 | 2.1 ± 0.7 | 2.8 ± 0.8 | 1.6 ± 0.6 | 0.7 ± 0.4 | 0.2 ± 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | – | 0.7 ± 0.4 | 3.4 ± 0.8 | 14.4 ± 1.7 | 13.1 ± 1.6 | 8.3 ± 1.3 | 1.6 ± 0.6 | 0.2 ± 0.2 | – |
| 4 | – | – | 12.5 ± 0.5 | 13.1 ± 1.6 | 12.0 ± 1.6 | 10.1 ± 1.4 | 1.6 ± 0.6 | 0.5 ± 0.3 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.2 ± 0.2 | – | 0.5 ± 0.3 | 2.1 ± 0.7 | 3.0 ± 0.8 | 1.4 ± 0.6 | – | – |
| 6 | – | – | – | – | 0.2 ± 0.2 | 0.2 ± 0.2 | 1.4 ± 0.6 | 0.7 ± 0.4 | 0.5 ± 0.3 |
| 7 | – | – | – | – | 0.2 ± 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| 8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
The transition matrix for all Phase II projects in the 2009–2016 NASA SBIR/STTR programs. Phase II final Technology Readiness Level (TRL) as assessed by NASA is related to the Phase I initial TRL reported by the PI
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