Table 4. Future real GDP growth...

Table 4.

Future real GDP growth (annualised) and climate change

		1-qtr-ahead		2-qtr-ahead		3-qtr-ahead		4-qtr-ahead		8-qtr-ahead		12-qtr-ahead
Horizons		Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.
Panel A: OLS estimates
C		1.304	0.012	2.386	0.001	3.453	0.000	4.510	0.000	4.894	0.000	0.244	0.947
yt		0.725	0.000	0.501	0.000	0.279	0.046	0.048	0.740	−0.063	0.686	0.764	0.259
PC_CLIMATE		−0.079	0.621	0.020	0.923	0.275	0.238	0.178	0.469	0.067	0.797	−0.374	0.186
$\bar{R^{2}}$			0.51711		0.21865		0.0563		−0.0283		−0.0386		−0.045
Panel B: Quantile regression estimates
	Quantile	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.
y_t	0.1	0.811	0.000	0.646	0.000	0.776	0.653	1.251	0.489	−0.233	0.224	4.230	0.027
	0.2	0.837	0.000	0.673	0.000	0.521	0.000	0.136	0.050	−0.014	0.791	0.008	0.975
	0.3	0.846	0.000	0.680	0.000	0.529	0.000	0.147	0.057	−0.008	0.902	−0.046	0.855
	0.4	0.809	0.000	0.684	0.000	0.526	0.000	0.152	0.060	−0.043	0.414	−0.003	0.988
	0.5	0.811	0.000	0.663	0.000	0.316	0.807	0.075	0.404	−0.034	0.529	−0.034	0.875
	0.6	0.812	0.000	0.670	0.000	0.212	0.073	0.099	0.216	−0.029	0.581	−0.012	0.951
	0.7	0.810	0.000	0.541	0.272	0.197	0.082	0.137	0.050	−0.005	0.921	−0.016	0.927
	0.8	0.806	0.000	0.335	0.017	0.178	0.237	−0.028	0.967	−0.029	0.675	0.076	0.758
	0.9	0.256	0.880	−0.090	0.403	−0.097	0.192	−0.084	0.116	0.000	0.995	−0.172	0.278
Climate	0.1	−0.032	0.724	0.432	0.017	1.759	0.067	1.636	0.025	−0.190	0.612	−0.386	0.568
	0.2	0.015	0.640	0.037	0.698	0.093	0.482	0.035	0.688	0.015	0.881	−0.089	0.280
	0.3	0.018	0.586	0.015	0.777	0.059	0.558	0.014	0.887	−0.031	0.787	−0.063	0.475
	0.4	0.002	0.945	0.002	0.969	0.043	0.610	0.025	0.815	−0.008	0.948	−0.037	0.687
	0.5	0.001	0.970	−0.001	0.981	0.023	0.865	0.041	0.734	0.009	0.940	−0.027	0.779
	0.6	−0.007	0.798	0.009	0.862	0.032	0.758	0.034	0.757	0.019	0.872	−0.011	0.903
	0.7	−0.001	0.970	0.062	0.390	0.106	0.269	0.096	0.336	0.065	0.546	−0.002	0.984
	0.8	0.022	0.504	−0.016	0.914	−0.014	0.951	0.006	0.978	0.133	0.159	−0.138	0.254
	0.9	0.009	0.982	0.099	0.415	−0.019	0.866	−0.021	0.868	−0.015	0.892	−0.025	0.758

		1-qtr-ahead		2-qtr-ahead		3-qtr-ahead		4-qtr-ahead		8-qtr-ahead		12-qtr-ahead
Horizons		Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.
Panel A: OLS estimates
C		1.304	0.012	2.386	0.001	3.453	0.000	4.510	0.000	4.894	0.000	0.244	0.947
yt		0.725	0.000	0.501	0.000	0.279	0.046	0.048	0.740	−0.063	0.686	0.764	0.259
PC_CLIMATE		−0.079	0.621	0.020	0.923	0.275	0.238	0.178	0.469	0.067	0.797	−0.374	0.186
$\bar{R^{2}}$			0.51711		0.21865		0.0563		−0.0283		−0.0386		−0.045
Panel B: Quantile regression estimates
	Quantile	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.	Coef.	Prob.
y_t	0.1	0.811	0.000	0.646	0.000	0.776	0.653	1.251	0.489	−0.233	0.224	4.230	0.027
	0.2	0.837	0.000	0.673	0.000	0.521	0.000	0.136	0.050	−0.014	0.791	0.008	0.975
	0.3	0.846	0.000	0.680	0.000	0.529	0.000	0.147	0.057	−0.008	0.902	−0.046	0.855
	0.4	0.809	0.000	0.684	0.000	0.526	0.000	0.152	0.060	−0.043	0.414	−0.003	0.988
	0.5	0.811	0.000	0.663	0.000	0.316	0.807	0.075	0.404	−0.034	0.529	−0.034	0.875
	0.6	0.812	0.000	0.670	0.000	0.212	0.073	0.099	0.216	−0.029	0.581	−0.012	0.951
	0.7	0.810	0.000	0.541	0.272	0.197	0.082	0.137	0.050	−0.005	0.921	−0.016	0.927
	0.8	0.806	0.000	0.335	0.017	0.178	0.237	−0.028	0.967	−0.029	0.675	0.076	0.758
	0.9	0.256	0.880	−0.090	0.403	−0.097	0.192	−0.084	0.116	0.000	0.995	−0.172	0.278
Climate	0.1	−0.032	0.724	0.432	0.017	1.759	0.067	1.636	0.025	−0.190	0.612	−0.386	0.568
	0.2	0.015	0.640	0.037	0.698	0.093	0.482	0.035	0.688	0.015	0.881	−0.089	0.280
	0.3	0.018	0.586	0.015	0.777	0.059	0.558	0.014	0.887	−0.031	0.787	−0.063	0.475
	0.4	0.002	0.945	0.002	0.969	0.043	0.610	0.025	0.815	−0.008	0.948	−0.037	0.687
	0.5	0.001	0.970	−0.001	0.981	0.023	0.865	0.041	0.734	0.009	0.940	−0.027	0.779
	0.6	−0.007	0.798	0.009	0.862	0.032	0.758	0.034	0.757	0.019	0.872	−0.011	0.903
	0.7	−0.001	0.970	0.062	0.390	0.106	0.269	0.096	0.336	0.065	0.546	−0.002	0.984
	0.8	0.022	0.504	−0.016	0.914	−0.014	0.951	0.006	0.978	0.133	0.159	−0.138	0.254
	0.9	0.009	0.982	0.099	0.415	−0.019	0.866	−0.021	0.868	−0.015	0.892	−0.025	0.758

Note(s):

This table reports results for equation (3) where y_t₊_h = f(y_t, CLIMATE) estimated using the OLS and Quantile Regression methods. CLIMATE is Principal Component of climate change variables, log of floods, log of temperature and log of precipitation

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