Linear and time-varying causality results
| Null hypothesis | Test results | Decision |
|---|---|---|
| Linear Causality Test – Toda-Yamamoto Granger Non-causality Test | ||
| Exports Real GDP | 2.612 (0.978) | Partial unidirectional causality from real GDP to exports |
| Exports Real GDP | 15.966* (0.068) | |
| Time Varying Causality Test | ||
| Exports Real GDP | Forward expanding: 18.729*** (17.257); 10.924** (10.434) | Bidirectional causality |
| Exports Real GDP | ||
| Exports Real GDP | Rolling window: 90.691*** (16.348); 553.554*** (16.823) | Bidirectional causality |
| Exports Real GDP | ||
| Exports Real GDP | Recursive expanding: 95.824*** (17.257); 568.532*** (17.536) | Bidirectional causality |
| Exports Real GDP | ||
| Null hypothesis | Test results | Decision |
|---|---|---|
| Exports | 2.612 (0.978) | Partial unidirectional causality from real GDP to exports |
| Exports | 15.966* (0.068) | |
| Exports | Forward expanding: 18.729*** (17.257); 10.924** (10.434) | Bidirectional causality |
| Exports | ||
| Exports | Rolling window: 90.691*** (16.348); 553.554*** (16.823) | Bidirectional causality |
| Exports | ||
| Exports | Recursive expanding: 95.824*** (17.257); 568.532*** (17.536) | Bidirectional causality |
| Exports | ||
Note(s): means exports do not Granger-cause real GDP; means real GDP does not Granger-cause exports. ***, ** and * denote 1%, 5% and 10% levels of significance, respectively
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