Result of the VECM model
| Dependent variables | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Independent variables | ΔLNBSE | ΔLNCRUDE_OIL | ΔLNEXCHANGE_RATE |
| ECT (γ1) | −0.365277** [−1.99664] | 0.637103 [0.82577] | −0.150396* [−1.91680] |
| ECT (γ2) | −0.682769*** [−3.25738] | −2.110115** [−2.38712] | 0.352532*** [3.92154] |
| ΔLNBSE (−1) | −0.548914* [−1.89379] | −0.985257 [−0.80603] | −0.072555 [−0.58366] |
| ΔLNBSE (−2) | 0.443932*** [2.87238] | −0.273131 [−0.41905] | −0.084397 [−1.27325] |
| ΔLNBSE (−3) | 0.080220 [0.31168] | −0.495970 [−0.45694] | 0.123356 [1.11751] |
| ΔLNCRUDE_OIL (−1) | 0.991070*** [3.48618] | 1.638656 [1.36681] | −0.217737* [−1.78584] |
| ΔLNCRUDE_OIL (−2) | 0.464306* [1.93987] | 0.765850 [0.75873] | −0.050633 [−0.49325] |
| ΔLNCRUDE_OIL (−3) | −0.068876 [−0.59851] | 0.043334 [0.08929] | 0.013514 [0.27382] |
| ΔLNEXCHANGE_RATE (−1) | 3.597147*** [3.62176] | 6.642354 [1.58583] | −1.873618*** [−4.39852] |
| ΔLNEXCHANGE_RATE (−2) | 4.975735*** [3.31632] | 7.130694 [1.12695] | −1.196622* [−1.85960] |
| ΔLNEXCHANGE_RATE (−3) | 1.350603 [1.13205] | 2.489758 [0.49484] | −0.053600 [−0.10475] |
| C | −0.140744 [−1.37376] | −0.154803 [−0.35829] | 0.122117*** [2.77921] |
| R-squared | 0.935048 | 0.693433 | 0.906248 |
| Dependent variables | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Independent variables | ΔLNBSE | ΔLNCRUDE_OIL | ΔLNEXCHANGE_RATE |
| ECT (γ1) | −0.365277 | 0.637103 [0.82577] | −0.150396 |
| ECT (γ2) | −0.682769 | −2.110115 | 0.352532 |
| ΔLNBSE (−1) | −0.548914 | −0.985257 [−0.80603] | −0.072555 [−0.58366] |
| ΔLNBSE (−2) | 0.443932 | −0.273131 [−0.41905] | −0.084397 [−1.27325] |
| ΔLNBSE (−3) | 0.080220 [0.31168] | −0.495970 [−0.45694] | 0.123356 [1.11751] |
| ΔLNCRUDE_OIL (−1) | 0.991070 | 1.638656 [1.36681] | −0.217737 |
| ΔLNCRUDE_OIL (−2) | 0.464306 | 0.765850 [0.75873] | −0.050633 [−0.49325] |
| ΔLNCRUDE_OIL (−3) | −0.068876 [−0.59851] | 0.043334 [0.08929] | 0.013514 [0.27382] |
| ΔLNEXCHANGE_RATE (−1) | 3.597147 | 6.642354 [1.58583] | −1.873618 |
| ΔLNEXCHANGE_RATE (−2) | 4.975735 | 7.130694 [1.12695] | −1.196622 |
| ΔLNEXCHANGE_RATE (−3) | 1.350603 [1.13205] | 2.489758 [0.49484] | −0.053600 [−0.10475] |
| C | −0.140744 [−1.37376] | −0.154803 [−0.35829] | 0.122117 |
| 0.935048 | 0.693433 | 0.906248 | |
Note(s):
Statistically significant at ***1; **5 and *10% level. [] indicates t-values
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