Probability of voting in the 2022 primaries, lagging turnout in the 2018 primaries, nationwide and for partisanship group
| . | Overall . | Republicans . | Independents . | Democrats . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote in 2018 Primary | 2.24*** | 1.72*** | 2.71*** | 1.63*** |
| (0.028) | (0.041) | (0.114) | (0.049) | |
| Age | 0.03*** | 0.03*** | 0.05*** | 0.07*** |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.007) | (0.007) | |
| Age Squared | −0.0001*** | −0.0001*** | −0.0002*** | −0.0002*** |
| (0.00004) | (0.00004) | (0.0001) | (0.0001) | |
| Female | 0.03*** | 0.10*** | −0.06*** | −0.10*** |
| (0.011) | (0.019) | (0.016) | (0.019) | |
| Asian | −0.64*** | −0.27** | −0.53*** | −0.04 |
| (0.104) | (0.131) | (0.204) | (0.115) | |
| Black | −0.39*** | −0.16* | −0.53*** | −0.13 |
| (0.078) | (0.082) | (0.076) | (0.111) | |
| Latino | −0.61*** | −0.12 | −0.79*** | −0.04 |
| (0.078) | (0.123) | (0.104) | (0.112) | |
| Race Other | −0.35*** | −0.11 | −0.35** | 0.00 |
| (0.049) | (0.083) | (0.142) | (0.067) | |
| Married | 0.11*** | 0.12*** | 0.10*** | 0.17*** |
| (0.023) | (0.031) | (0.037) | (0.027) | |
| Pr(Bachelor’s degree) | 0.001 | −0.01*** | 0.003 | −0.01*** |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.001) | |
| Income | 0.22*** | 0.17*** | 0.15*** | 0.17*** |
| (0.018) | (0.019) | (0.027) | (0.029) | |
| Catalist Ideology | 0.01*** | −0.03*** | 0.03*** | 0.09*** |
| (0.002) | (0.010) | (0.004) | (0.008) | |
| Primary Type . | ||||
| Open-Unaffl. Voters Primary State | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| (0.186) | (0.175) | (0.258) | (0.198) | |
| Open Primary State | 0.05 | 0.26 | 0.50** | 0.58** |
| (0.162) | (0.178) | (0.224) | (0.271) | |
| Non-partisan Primary State | 0.80*** | 0.54* | 1.21*** | 0.67*** |
| (0.240) | (0.326) | (0.310) | (0.180) | |
| Competition . | ||||
| Dem. Senate Fract. 2022 | 0.79** | 0.90** | 0.91** | |
| (0.332) | (0.437) | (0.422) | ||
| . | Overall . | Republicans . | Independents . | Democrats . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote in 2018 Primary | 2.24*** | 1.72*** | 2.71*** | 1.63*** |
| (0.028) | (0.041) | (0.114) | (0.049) | |
| Age | 0.03*** | 0.03*** | 0.05*** | 0.07*** |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.007) | (0.007) | |
| Age Squared | −0.0001*** | −0.0001*** | −0.0002*** | −0.0002*** |
| (0.00004) | (0.00004) | (0.0001) | (0.0001) | |
| Female | 0.03*** | 0.10*** | −0.06*** | −0.10*** |
| (0.011) | (0.019) | (0.016) | (0.019) | |
| Asian | −0.64*** | −0.27** | −0.53*** | −0.04 |
| (0.104) | (0.131) | (0.204) | (0.115) | |
| Black | −0.39*** | −0.16* | −0.53*** | −0.13 |
| (0.078) | (0.082) | (0.076) | (0.111) | |
| Latino | −0.61*** | −0.12 | −0.79*** | −0.04 |
| (0.078) | (0.123) | (0.104) | (0.112) | |
| Race Other | −0.35*** | −0.11 | −0.35** | 0.00 |
| (0.049) | (0.083) | (0.142) | (0.067) | |
| Married | 0.11*** | 0.12*** | 0.10*** | 0.17*** |
| (0.023) | (0.031) | (0.037) | (0.027) | |
| Pr(Bachelor’s degree) | 0.001 | −0.01*** | 0.003 | −0.01*** |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.001) | |
| Income | 0.22*** | 0.17*** | 0.15*** | 0.17*** |
| (0.018) | (0.019) | (0.027) | (0.029) | |
| Catalist Ideology | 0.01*** | −0.03*** | 0.03*** | 0.09*** |
| (0.002) | (0.010) | (0.004) | (0.008) | |
| Primary Type . | ||||
| Open-Unaffl. Voters Primary State | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| (0.186) | (0.175) | (0.258) | (0.198) | |
| Open Primary State | 0.05 | 0.26 | 0.50** | 0.58** |
| (0.162) | (0.178) | (0.224) | (0.271) | |
| Non-partisan Primary State | 0.80*** | 0.54* | 1.21*** | 0.67*** |
| (0.240) | (0.326) | (0.310) | (0.180) | |
| Competition . | ||||
| Dem. Senate Fract. 2022 | 0.79** | 0.90** | 0.91** | |
| (0.332) | (0.437) | (0.422) | ||