Table 1 Probability of voting in the...

Table 1

Probability of voting in the 2022 primaries, lagging turnout in the 2018 primaries, nationwide and for partisanship group

	Overall	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
Vote in 2018 Primary	2.24^***	1.72^***	2.71^***	1.63^***
	(0.028)	(0.041)	(0.114)	(0.049)
Age	0.03^***	0.03^***	0.05^***	0.07^***
	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.007)
Age Squared	−0.0001^***	−0.0001^***	−0.0002^***	−0.0002^***
	(0.00004)	(0.00004)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Female	0.03^***	0.10^***	−0.06^***	−0.10^***
	(0.011)	(0.019)	(0.016)	(0.019)
Asian	−0.64^***	−0.27^**	−0.53^***	−0.04
	(0.104)	(0.131)	(0.204)	(0.115)
Black	−0.39^***	−0.16^*	−0.53^***	−0.13
	(0.078)	(0.082)	(0.076)	(0.111)
Latino	−0.61^***	−0.12	−0.79^***	−0.04
	(0.078)	(0.123)	(0.104)	(0.112)
Race Other	−0.35^***	−0.11	−0.35^**	0.00
	(0.049)	(0.083)	(0.142)	(0.067)
Married	0.11^***	0.12^***	0.10^***	0.17^***
	(0.023)	(0.031)	(0.037)	(0.027)
Pr(Bachelor’s degree)	0.001	−0.01^***	0.003	−0.01^***
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)
Income	0.22^***	0.17^***	0.15^***	0.17^***
	(0.018)	(0.019)	(0.027)	(0.029)
Catalist Ideology	0.01^***	−0.03^***	0.03^***	0.09^***
	(0.002)	(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.008)
Primary Type
Open-Unaffl. Voters Primary State	0.23	0.17	0.38	0.18
	(0.186)	(0.175)	(0.258)	(0.198)
Open Primary State	0.05	0.26	0.50^**	0.58^**
	(0.162)	(0.178)	(0.224)	(0.271)
Non-partisan Primary State	0.80^***	0.54^*	1.21^***	0.67^***
	(0.240)	(0.326)	(0.310)	(0.180)
Competition
Dem. Senate Fract. 2022	0.79^**		0.90^**	0.91^**
	(0.332)		(0.437)	(0.422)

	Overall	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
Vote in 2018 Primary	2.24^***	1.72^***	2.71^***	1.63^***
	(0.028)	(0.041)	(0.114)	(0.049)
Age	0.03^***	0.03^***	0.05^***	0.07^***
	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.007)
Age Squared	−0.0001^***	−0.0001^***	−0.0002^***	−0.0002^***
	(0.00004)	(0.00004)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Female	0.03^***	0.10^***	−0.06^***	−0.10^***
	(0.011)	(0.019)	(0.016)	(0.019)
Asian	−0.64^***	−0.27^**	−0.53^***	−0.04
	(0.104)	(0.131)	(0.204)	(0.115)
Black	−0.39^***	−0.16^*	−0.53^***	−0.13
	(0.078)	(0.082)	(0.076)	(0.111)
Latino	−0.61^***	−0.12	−0.79^***	−0.04
	(0.078)	(0.123)	(0.104)	(0.112)
Race Other	−0.35^***	−0.11	−0.35^**	0.00
	(0.049)	(0.083)	(0.142)	(0.067)
Married	0.11^***	0.12^***	0.10^***	0.17^***
	(0.023)	(0.031)	(0.037)	(0.027)
Pr(Bachelor’s degree)	0.001	−0.01^***	0.003	−0.01^***
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)
Income	0.22^***	0.17^***	0.15^***	0.17^***
	(0.018)	(0.019)	(0.027)	(0.029)
Catalist Ideology	0.01^***	−0.03^***	0.03^***	0.09^***
	(0.002)	(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.008)
Primary Type
Open-Unaffl. Voters Primary State	0.23	0.17	0.38	0.18
	(0.186)	(0.175)	(0.258)	(0.198)
Open Primary State	0.05	0.26	0.50^**	0.58^**
	(0.162)	(0.178)	(0.224)	(0.271)
Non-partisan Primary State	0.80^***	0.54^*	1.21^***	0.67^***
	(0.240)	(0.326)	(0.310)	(0.180)
Competition
Dem. Senate Fract. 2022	0.79^**		0.90^**	0.91^**
	(0.332)		(0.437)	(0.422)

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