Table 1 Probability of voting in the...

Table 1

Probability of voting in the 2022 primaries, lagging turnout in the 2018 primaries, nationwide and for partisanship group. Continud

	Overall	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
Dem. Governor Fract. 2022	−0.13		−0.50	0.45^*
	(0.217)		(0.436)	(0.232)
Rep. Senate Fract. 2022	(0.10)	0.34^*	0.08
	(0.254)	(0.189)	(0.352)
Rep. Governor Fract. 2022	0.57^**	0.67^***	0.59
	(0.264)	(0.227)	(0.373)
Constant	−4.91^***	−2.72^***	−7.51^***	−11.42^***
	(0.168)	(0.278)	(0.420)	(0.840)
Observations	2,464,657	617,090	985,514	862,053
Log-likelihood	−941058.79	−330576.61	−205055.75	−308270.64
Pseudo-R²	0.25	0.18	0.25	0.35
BIC	1882412	661393.20	410387.51	616787.28

	Overall	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
Dem. Governor Fract. 2022	−0.13		−0.50	0.45^*
	(0.217)		(0.436)	(0.232)
Rep. Senate Fract. 2022	(0.10)	0.34^*	0.08
	(0.254)	(0.189)	(0.352)
Rep. Governor Fract. 2022	0.57^**	0.67^***	0.59
	(0.264)	(0.227)	(0.373)
Constant	−4.91^***	−2.72^***	−7.51^***	−11.42^***
	(0.168)	(0.278)	(0.420)	(0.840)
Observations	2,464,657	617,090	985,514	862,053
Log-likelihood	−941058.79	−330576.61	−205055.75	−308270.64
Pseudo-R²	0.25	0.18	0.25	0.35
BIC	1882412	661393.20	410387.51	616787.28

Unstandardized logistic regression coefficients. Standard errors are clustered by state in parentheses. ^*p < 0.1, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01