Table 1. Impact of climate change in... | Emerald Publishing

Table 1.

Impact of climate change in agriculture production in Ethiopia (impact model result)

Climate change	Impact of climate change on crop in percent (%)	Analysis model	Source
Water stress	35% decline in maize yield	Process-based crop model (DSSAT)	Yang et al. (2023)
	25.4%, 21.8% and 25.2% teff, maize and sorghum decline, respectively	Dynamic computable general equilibrium model	Solomon et al. (2021)
	28.3%, 30.9%, 28.5% and 34.6% of teff, wheat, barley and maize, declined, correspondingly	Pearson correlation coefficient. drought index	Adunya and Benti (2020)
	6.9% of 2015 barley, 96% of 2017 sorghum yield declined	NDVI, Dev-NDVI and SPI index	Eze et al. (2022)
	79%, 81%, 79% and 0.83% for teff, maize, sorghum and barley, respectively	Hadley Centre Coupled Model v3	Evangelista et al. (2013)
Heat stress	50% crop failure	Descriptive statistics	Singh (2019)
	20% maize yield will decrease in 2050	Centre Coupled Model Version3	Kassie (2014)
	(1981–2010) 14% cereal failed	sIMulator (APSIM) model	Araya et al. (2020)
	18.1%, 13.2%, of sorghum and wheat decline	Climate models (UQAM_CRCM5 and SMHI_RCA4)	Kassaye et al. (2021)
Other climate-related stress	1,228,352 in Orommia, 1,026,132 Somalia and 843,241 quintals of cereal crops decline in Tigray regions in 2020 production year	Critical review analysis	Demem (2023)
	36 to 40% reduction in wheat yield by 2050	Multi-model ensemble	Rettie et al. (2022)

Climate change	Impact of climate change on crop in percent (%)	Analysis model	Source
Water stress	35% decline in maize yield	Process-based crop model (DSSAT)	Yang et al. (2023)
	25.4%, 21.8% and 25.2% teff, maize and sorghum decline, respectively	Dynamic computable general equilibrium model	Solomon et al. (2021)
	28.3%, 30.9%, 28.5% and 34.6% of teff, wheat, barley and maize, declined, correspondingly	Pearson correlation coefficient. drought index	Adunya and Benti (2020)
	6.9% of 2015 barley, 96% of 2017 sorghum yield declined	NDVI, Dev-NDVI and SPI index	Eze et al. (2022)
	79%, 81%, 79% and 0.83% for teff, maize, sorghum and barley, respectively	Hadley Centre Coupled Model v3	Evangelista et al. (2013)
Heat stress	50% crop failure	Descriptive statistics	Singh (2019)
	20% maize yield will decrease in 2050	Centre Coupled Model Version3	Kassie (2014)
	(1981–2010) 14% cereal failed	sIMulator (APSIM) model	Araya et al. (2020)
	18.1%, 13.2%, of sorghum and wheat decline	Climate models (UQAM_CRCM5 and SMHI_RCA4)	Kassaye et al. (2021)
Other climate-related stress	1,228,352 in Orommia, 1,026,132 Somalia and 843,241 quintals of cereal crops decline in Tigray regions in 2020 production year	Critical review analysis	Demem (2023)
	36 to 40% reduction in wheat yield by 2050	Multi-model ensemble	Rettie et al. (2022)

Source: Own summary (2023)