Table B3: Results on oil market,...

Table B3:

Results on oil market, leakage, and adjustment costs under halved (ARM_lo) and doubled (ARM_hi) Armington elasticities.

	EU		EU×USA		OECD		EU×USA×CHN		OECD×CHN
	COM	DOM	COM	DOM	COM	DOM	COM	DOM	COM	DOM
Oil market^*
Crude oil price	−0.97	0.60	−1.79	−0.37	−2.61	−1.07	−1.56	−0.78	−2.21	−1.31
OPEC supply	−0.16	−3.25	−0.49	−0.74	−3.40	−3.90	−0.48	−2.15	−0.67	−2.60
Non-OPEC supply	−0.65	−0:79	−1.44	−0.09	−2.33	−0.82	−1.31	−0.55	−1.98	−1.10
Coalition consumption	−4.59		−3.62	−4.04	−3.76	−4.23	−2.52	−2.82	−2.64	−2.97
Non-Coalition consumption	0.55	−0.24	0.74	0.02	1.03	0.22	0.61	0.19	0.83	0.31
Leakage^**
Total leakage	16.9	10.3	7.3	5.3	6.4	5.0	3.6	2.9	3.1	2.6
Coal leakage	6.1	6.7	3.1	3.2	3.1	3.1	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.6
Gas leakage	4.3	4.9	1.5	1.6	1.2	1.2	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.6
Oil leakage	6.5	−1.2	2.7	0.5	2.1	0.7	1.2	0.5	0.9	0.4
Adjustment costs^***
Global	0.10	0.13	0.11	0.15	0.16	0.20	0.10	0.13	0.14	0.17
Coalition	0.20	0.21	0.09	0.12	0.11	0.14	0.08	0.10	0.09	0.12
OPEC	0.55	0.90	0.76	1.21	1.10	1.64	0.66	0.97	0.93	1.33
ROW	0.04	0.05	0.08	0.09	0.17	0.16	0.07	0.07	0.18	0.16
Oil market^*
Crude oil price	−0.61	0.62	−1.43	−0.11	−2.10	−0.66	−1.26	−0.58	−1.80	−1.01
OPEC supply	−0.18	−2:70	−0.60	−3.35	−0.93	−3.95	−0.59	−2.10	−0.86	−2.60
Non-OPEC supply	−0.45	0:71	−1.26	0:02	−2.06	−0.62	−1.13	−0.46	−1.74	−0.95
Coalition consumption	−6.54	−6.27	−5.06	−5.39	−5.04	−5.45	−3.50	−3.75	−3.48	−3.77
Non-Coalition consumption	1.12	0.41	1.78	1.05	2.72	1.88	1.62	1.22	2.45	1.94
Leakage^**
Total leakage	20.9	15.4	9.5	7.6	9.1	7.7	4.9	4.3	4.5	4.0
Coal leakage	8.5	8.7	4.2	4.1	4.5	4.4	2.3	2.3	2.1	2.1
Gas leakage	5.5	5.9	2.1	2.2	1.9	1.9	1.1	1.1	1.0	1.0
Oil leakage	6.9	0.7	3.3	1.2	2.7	1.4	1.6	1.0	1.3	0.8
Adjustment costs^***
Global	0.11	0.13	0.12	0.15	0.16	0.21	0.10	0.12	0.14	0.16
Coalition	0.29	0.29	0.14	0.17	0.16	0.19	0.12	0.14	0.12	0.14
OPEC	0.34	0.62	0.58	0.99	0.85	1.36	0.49	0.79	0.71	1.09
ROW	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.05	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	0.06	0.05

	EU		EU×USA		OECD		EU×USA×CHN		OECD×CHN
	COM	DOM	COM	DOM	COM	DOM	COM	DOM	COM	DOM
Oil market^*
Crude oil price	−0.97	0.60	−1.79	−0.37	−2.61	−1.07	−1.56	−0.78	−2.21	−1.31
OPEC supply	−0.16	−3.25	−0.49	−0.74	−3.40	−3.90	−0.48	−2.15	−0.67	−2.60
Non-OPEC supply	−0.65	−0:79	−1.44	−0.09	−2.33	−0.82	−1.31	−0.55	−1.98	−1.10
Coalition consumption	−4.59		−3.62	−4.04	−3.76	−4.23	−2.52	−2.82	−2.64	−2.97
Non-Coalition consumption	0.55	−0.24	0.74	0.02	1.03	0.22	0.61	0.19	0.83	0.31
Leakage^**
Total leakage	16.9	10.3	7.3	5.3	6.4	5.0	3.6	2.9	3.1	2.6
Coal leakage	6.1	6.7	3.1	3.2	3.1	3.1	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.6
Gas leakage	4.3	4.9	1.5	1.6	1.2	1.2	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.6
Oil leakage	6.5	−1.2	2.7	0.5	2.1	0.7	1.2	0.5	0.9	0.4
Adjustment costs^***
Global	0.10	0.13	0.11	0.15	0.16	0.20	0.10	0.13	0.14	0.17
Coalition	0.20	0.21	0.09	0.12	0.11	0.14	0.08	0.10	0.09	0.12
OPEC	0.55	0.90	0.76	1.21	1.10	1.64	0.66	0.97	0.93	1.33
ROW	0.04	0.05	0.08	0.09	0.17	0.16	0.07	0.07	0.18	0.16
Oil market^*
Crude oil price	−0.61	0.62	−1.43	−0.11	−2.10	−0.66	−1.26	−0.58	−1.80	−1.01
OPEC supply	−0.18	−2:70	−0.60	−3.35	−0.93	−3.95	−0.59	−2.10	−0.86	−2.60
Non-OPEC supply	−0.45	0:71	−1.26	0:02	−2.06	−0.62	−1.13	−0.46	−1.74	−0.95
Coalition consumption	−6.54	−6.27	−5.06	−5.39	−5.04	−5.45	−3.50	−3.75	−3.48	−3.77
Non-Coalition consumption	1.12	0.41	1.78	1.05	2.72	1.88	1.62	1.22	2.45	1.94
Leakage^**
Total leakage	20.9	15.4	9.5	7.6	9.1	7.7	4.9	4.3	4.5	4.0
Coal leakage	8.5	8.7	4.2	4.1	4.5	4.4	2.3	2.3	2.1	2.1
Gas leakage	5.5	5.9	2.1	2.2	1.9	1.9	1.1	1.1	1.0	1.0
Oil leakage	6.9	0.7	3.3	1.2	2.7	1.4	1.6	1.0	1.3	0.8
Adjustment costs^***
Global	0.11	0.13	0.12	0.15	0.16	0.21	0.10	0.12	0.14	0.16
Coalition	0.29	0.29	0.14	0.17	0.16	0.19	0.12	0.14	0.12	0.14
OPEC	0.34	0.62	0.58	0.99	0.85	1.36	0.49	0.79	0.71	1.09
ROW	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.05	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	0.06	0.05

in percentage change w.r.t. business-as-usual;

in percentage;

***

in Hicksian EV as % share of business-as-usual GDP

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