Table 1 Core Practices of Predictive... | Emerald Publishing

Table 1

Core Practices of Predictive Leadership with observable behaviours

Practice	The Metaphor	Theoretical Basis (The Science)	Leader Action (The Application)
1. Mapping Past Experience	Geology	Long-term Memory / ILTs Based on Lord et al. (2020). Prototypes are deep, stable cognitive categories formed over time that filter current perception	Excavate the “Ghosts” Facilitate dialogue to identify which previous leaders or historical events are shaping the team's current expectations. Ask: “Based on what happened last time, what are you assuming will happen now?” For example, if a previous leader punished dissent, explicitly acknowledge this history (“I know speaking up felt dangerous in the past”) to validate their caution before inviting feedback
2. Current State Awareness	Weather	Interoception / Allostasis Based on Feldman-Barrett (2017). “Affect” (mood) is a biological signal of the body's current energy resources	Gauge Team Capacity Assess if the team has the metabolic solvency (and bandwidth) to process change before loading them. Use a “Safety Prediction Index” to ask: “Do we have the energy budget to tackle this today, or are we running on empty?” If the answer is “empty,” defer high-stakes decisions; forcing complex cognitive load on a depleted team guarantees prediction error and resistance
3. Monitoring Prediction Error	Diagnostics	System 2 Activation Based on Kahneman (2011). Surprise or confusion forces the brain out of efficient System 1 processing into metabolically expensive System 2 processing, triggering an immediate energy tax	The Mismatch Debrief Treat sarcasm or confusion as a “leak” in the energy budget. Intervene immediately to stop the tax: “I'm sensing a disconnect. What exactly did your brain predict would happen, and how did reality differ?” This line of questioning validates the follower's reality while shifting the focus from judging their “attitude” to correcting the data error that caused the friction
4. Scaffolding Future Predictions	Architecture	Concept Formation Based on Barrett (2017) and Kahneman (2011). Providing clear concepts reduces the metabolic cost of uncertainty and allows efficient prediction	The Prediction Audit Publicly “close the loop” on decisions. Clearly state why an outcome occurred to update the team's internal models. Ensure the new expectation is explicit, reducing the energy cost of future guessing. For instance, clearly articulating why a resource request was denied prevents the team from forming the superstitious prediction that “management doesn't care,” thereby reducing future uncertainty

Practice	The Metaphor	Theoretical Basis (The Science)	Leader Action (The Application)
1. Mapping Past Experience	Geology	Long-term Memory / ILTsBased on Lord et al. (2020). Prototypes are deep, stable cognitive categories formed over time that filter current perception	Excavate the “Ghosts”Facilitate dialogue to identify which previous leaders or historical events are shaping the team's current expectations. Ask: “Based on what happened last time, what are you assuming will happen now?”For example, if a previous leader punished dissent, explicitly acknowledge this history (“I know speaking up felt dangerous in the past”) to validate their caution before inviting feedback
2. Current State Awareness	Weather	Interoception / AllostasisBased on Feldman-Barrett (2017). “Affect” (mood) is a biological signal of the body's current energy resources	Gauge Team CapacityAssess if the team has the metabolic solvency (and bandwidth) to process change before loading them. Use a “Safety Prediction Index” to ask: “Do we have the energy budget to tackle this today, or are we running on empty?” If the answer is “empty,” defer high-stakes decisions; forcing complex cognitive load on a depleted team guarantees prediction error and resistance
3. Monitoring Prediction Error	Diagnostics	System 2 ActivationBased on Kahneman (2011). Surprise or confusion forces the brain out of efficient System 1 processing into metabolically expensive System 2 processing, triggering an immediate energy tax	The Mismatch DebriefTreat sarcasm or confusion as a “leak” in the energy budget. Intervene immediately to stop the tax: “I'm sensing a disconnect. What exactly did your brain predict would happen, and how did reality differ?” This line of questioning validates the follower's reality while shifting the focus from judging their “attitude” to correcting the data error that caused the friction
4. Scaffolding Future Predictions	Architecture	Concept FormationBased on Barrett (2017) and Kahneman (2011). Providing clear concepts reduces the metabolic cost of uncertainty and allows efficient prediction	The Prediction AuditPublicly “close the loop” on decisions. Clearly state why an outcome occurred to update the team's internal models. Ensure the new expectation is explicit, reducing the energy cost of future guessing. For instance, clearly articulating why a resource request was denied prevents the team from forming the superstitious prediction that “management doesn't care,” thereby reducing future uncertainty

Source(s): Authors’ own work