ARDL model estimates
| LnGDP | −12.89*** (−3.308) | LnGDP*lnTO | −0.604*** (−11.53) | Δ(lnGDPt) | 3.132 (0.583) | Δ(lnGDP*lnTOt) | −0.257*** (−3.371) |
| LnGDP2 | 1.929*** (3.368) | LnGDP2*lnTO | 0.106*** (7.34) | Δ(lnGDPt)2 | −0.578 (−0.718) | Δ(lnGDP*lnTOt−1) | 0.310*** (3.391) |
| LnGDP3 | −0.096*** (−3.418) | LnGDP3*lnTO | −0.006*** (−5.98) | Δ(lnGDPt)3 | 0.033 (0.831) | Δ (lnGDP2*lnTOt) | 0.005 (0.26) |
| LnEU | 1.1744*** (19.03) | LnEU*lnTO | 1.044*** (42.54) | Δ(lnEUt) | 1.085*** (18.73) | Δ (lnGDP2*lnTOt−1) | −0.073*** (−2.99) |
| LnTO | −0.0608*** (−4.292) | Δ(lnEUt−1) | −0.480*** (−4.235) | Δ (lnGDP3*lnTOt) | 0.0012 (0.88) | ||
| R2 | 0.999 | R2 | 0.999 | Δ(lnEUt−2) | −0.176 (−1.55) | Δ (lnGDP3*lnTOt−1) | 0.0047*** (2.73) |
| Δ(lnEUt−3) | −0.358*** (−3.428) | Δ (lnEU*lnTOt) | 1.028*** (16.97) | ||||
| Δ(lnTOt) | −0.068*** (−3.974) | Δ (lnEU*lnTOt−1) | −0.181 (−1.522) | ||||
| Δ(lnTOt−1) | 0.068*** (4.043) | ||||||
| ECT(−1) | −0.88*** (−6.99) | ECT(−1) | −0.673*** (−5.98) | ||||
| EKC Shape | Inverted N | Inverted N | No EKC | No EKC | |||
| Turning points | $607.84 $1224.14 | $121.51 $992.27 | |||||
| Diagnostic testing | |||||||
| Jarque-Bera test | χ2 = 0.048 | χ2 = 1.411 | |||||
| Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test | F: 0.635 | F: 0.867 | |||||
| Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heterosckedasticity test | F: 0.543 | F: 0.779 | |||||
| LnGDP | −12.89*** (−3.308) | LnGDP*lnTO | −0.604*** (−11.53) | Δ(lnGDPt) | 3.132 (0.583) | Δ(lnGDP*lnTOt) | −0.257*** (−3.371) |
| LnGDP2 | 1.929*** (3.368) | LnGDP2*lnTO | 0.106*** (7.34) | Δ(lnGDPt)2 | −0.578 (−0.718) | Δ(lnGDP*lnTOt−1) | 0.310*** (3.391) |
| LnGDP3 | −0.096*** (−3.418) | LnGDP3*lnTO | −0.006*** (−5.98) | Δ(lnGDPt)3 | 0.033 (0.831) | Δ (lnGDP2*lnTOt) | 0.005 (0.26) |
| LnEU | 1.1744*** (19.03) | LnEU*lnTO | 1.044*** (42.54) | Δ(lnEUt) | 1.085*** (18.73) | Δ (lnGDP2*lnTOt−1) | −0.073*** (−2.99) |
| LnTO | −0.0608*** (−4.292) | Δ(lnEUt−1) | −0.480*** (−4.235) | Δ (lnGDP3*lnTOt) | 0.0012 (0.88) | ||
| R2 | 0.999 | 0.999 | Δ(lnEUt−2) | −0.176 (−1.55) | Δ (lnGDP3*lnTOt−1) | 0.0047*** (2.73) | |
| Δ(lnEUt−3) | −0.358*** (−3.428) | Δ (lnEU*lnTOt) | 1.028*** (16.97) | ||||
| Δ(lnTOt) | −0.068*** (−3.974) | Δ (lnEU*lnTOt−1) | −0.181 (−1.522) | ||||
| Δ(lnTOt−1) | 0.068*** (4.043) | ||||||
| ECT(−1) | −0.88*** (−6.99) | ECT(−1) | −0.673*** (−5.98) | ||||
| EKC Shape | Inverted N | Inverted N | No EKC | No EKC | |||
| Turning points | $607.84 $1224.14 | $121.51 $992.27 | |||||
| Jarque-Bera test | χ2 = 0.048 | χ2 = 1.411 | |||||
| Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test | F: 0.635 | F: 0.867 | |||||
| Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heterosckedasticity test | F: 0.543 | F: 0.779 | |||||
Note(s): Asterisks ***, **, * indicate significant at 1%, 5% and 10% percent respectively
Source(s): Authors’ work
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