Table 10

Oster test

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)
FSD scoreNumber of forecastsPrecisionSpecificityHorizon
VariablesWithout controlWith controlWithout controlWith controlWithout controlWith controlWithout controlWith controlWithout controlWith control
Ln EPU−0.0565***−0.0531**−0.0522**−0.0558*−0.247***−0.304***−0.260***−0.337***0.0985***0.125***
(0.014)(0.019)(0.018)(0.025)(0.031)(0.044)(0.035)(0.056)(0.012)(0.016)
LnSize −0.0376*** 0.0519*** 0.0525** 0.204*** 0.00894
 (0.006) (0.011) (0.020) (0.027) (0.007)
Leverage −0.142*** −0.0919 0.0269 −0.417*** −0.05
 (0.024) (0.057) (0.094) (0.124) (0.036)
MTB 0.00190** −0.00101 −0.0000924 −0.000393 −0.000525
 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
ROA 0.0643*** −0.124* 0.13 0.572* −0.0298
 (0.018) (0.053) (0.104) (0.280) (0.043)
CFOA −0.205*** 0.566*** 0.378* 0.763** −0.00324
 (0.025) (0.091) (0.156) (0.243) (0.064)
Cash Volatility 0.0132 −0.105** −0.0544 −0.246 −0.00825
 (0.009) (0.035) (0.095) (0.178) (0.029)
Sales Volatility 0.0481* −0.141** −0.114 −0.235 −0.0632
 (0.021) (0.048) (0.079) (0.391) (0.035)
INVZ 0.00325* 0.0175* −0.0270* 0.00596 −0.00446
 (0.001) (0.008) (0.011) (0.014) (0.005)
GDP Growth −0.00468 −0.00426 0.0207*** 0.0182*** −0.00436
 (0.003) (0.003) (0.005) (0.005) (0.002)
VIX −0.000767 −0.000806 0.00865*** 0.00838*** −0.00255**
 (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.003) (0.001)
Constant3.155***3.403***1.739***1.428***3.317***2.878***0.682***−0.671*4.935***4.818***
(0.065)(0.084)(0.088)(0.124)(0.147)(0.220)(0.168)(0.280)(0.056)(0.076)
Observations61,35661,35612,06412,06412,06412,0647,7597,75912,06412,064
R-squared0.3460.350.4730.4830.5270.5350.7890.8110.2820.285
Firm FEYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Π 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Rmax 0.454 0.627 0.696 1.054 0.370
δ 1.11 4.738 4.693 36.576 0.566

Note(s): The table reports the results of a sensitivity analysis following Oster (2019) to assess the robustness of the estimated relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty (Ln EPU) and various measures of disclosure quality. The dependent variables include the FSD Score, Number of Forecasts, Precision, Specificity, and Horizon. For each measure, the table reports coefficient estimates for Ln EPU from regressions estimated both without controls and with a full set of controls, allowing for an evaluation of how omitted variable bias may influence the results. The regressions control a comprehensive set of firm-specific and market-related factors. Firm fixed effects are incorporated in all models (with their coefficients suppressed for brevity), and every specification includes a constant term. Robust standard errors, clustered at the establishment level, are reported in parentheses. In addition to the regression coefficients, the table presents key Oster test statistics including the selection parameter (Π, set at 1.3), the Rmax value, and the δ statistic. Statistical significance is denoted by ∗∗∗, ∗∗, and ∗ at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. All variables are defined in  Appendix 1

Source(s): Authors’ own work

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