Methods mapped to Bergman et al. (2010) and corresponding TFDT constructs
| Bergman Quadrant | TC* | EC* | Method | Primary function | TFDT construct | Ontology** | Epistemology** | Orientation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | Y | Y | System Dynamics/Agent-based Simulation | Stress-test system dynamics and mechanisms | Time | Realist | Post-positivist | Quantitative Mixed |
| Space | ||||||||
| Entropy | ||||||||
| Mechanism Mapping/Process Tracing | Uncover causal process chains | Time | Realist/Constructivist | Post-positivist Interpretive | Qualitative | |||
| Space | ||||||||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Learning from the Past (structured) | Conditional projections with causal justification | Space | Realist | Post-positivist | Mixed | |||
| Time | ||||||||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Mixed-method Triangulation (e.g. Delphi + Simulation) | Integrate insights for causal adequacy | *** | Pluralist/Pragmatist | Post-positivist Interpretive | Mixed | |||
| Prognosis | Y | N | Time-series, econometrics | Baseline extrapolation | Time | Realist | Positivist | Quantitative |
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Delphi (classical) | Consolidate probabilities (consensus) | Space | Realist | Post-positivist | Mixed | |||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Trend impact analysis/historical analogy | Extend trajectories, estimate event impacts | Space | Realist | Post-positivist | Mixed | |||
| Time | ||||||||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Fuzzy Delphi | Integrate uncertainty judgments | Agency | Critical Realist | Post-positivist Interpretive | Mixed | |||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Science Fiction | N | Y | Cross-Consistency Assessment (CCA) | Check internal coherence of scenario sets | Time | Constructivist/Realist | Post-positivist | Mixed |
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Morphological analysis | Structure driver/state spaces; combine logics | Time | Constructivist | Interpretive | Mixed | |||
| Space | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Delphi (exploratory/explanatory; Policy Delphi) | Elicit divergent causal assumptions and hypotheses | Space | Constructivist | Interpretive | Mixed | |||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Scenario Writing/Storytelling (incl. CLA) | Compose coherent alternative futures | Time | Critical/Constructivist | Interpretive | Qualitative | |||
| Space | ||||||||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Design Fiction/Sci-Fi Prototyping | Trigger imagination; test assumptions | Space | Constructivist | Interpretive | Qualitative | |||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Serious Games/Role-Play | Experiential sense-making with stakeholders | Space | Constructivist | Interpretive | Qualitative (participatory) | |||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Visioning/Normative Delphi (+Backcasting) | Define desirable futures and pathways | Space | Constructivist | Critical Interpretive | Qualitative Mixed | |||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Utopia/Dystopia | N | N | Dystopian Scenario Writing | Cautionary narratives/stress cases | Time | Constructivist | Interpretive | Qualitative |
| Space | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Dystopian Design Fiction/Stress Games | Explore extreme “what-ifs” | Space | Constructivist | Interpretive | Qualitative (participatory) | |||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Entropy |
| Bergman Quadrant | TC* | EC* | Method | Primary function | TFDT construct | Ontology** | Epistemology** | Orientation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | Y | Y | System Dynamics/Agent-based Simulation | Stress-test system dynamics and mechanisms | Time | Realist | Post-positivist | Quantitative |
| Space | ||||||||
| Entropy | ||||||||
| Mechanism Mapping/Process Tracing | Uncover causal process chains | Time | Realist/Constructivist | Post-positivist | Qualitative | |||
| Space | ||||||||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Learning from the Past (structured) | Conditional projections with causal justification | Space | Realist | Post-positivist | Mixed | |||
| Time | ||||||||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Mixed-method Triangulation (e.g. Delphi + Simulation) | Integrate insights for causal adequacy | *** | Pluralist/Pragmatist | Post-positivist | Mixed | |||
| Prognosis | Y | N | Time-series, econometrics | Baseline extrapolation | Time | Realist | Positivist | Quantitative |
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Delphi (classical) | Consolidate probabilities (consensus) | Space | Realist | Post-positivist | Mixed | |||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Trend impact analysis/historical analogy | Extend trajectories, estimate event impacts | Space | Realist | Post-positivist | Mixed | |||
| Time | ||||||||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Fuzzy Delphi | Integrate uncertainty judgments | Agency | Critical Realist | Post-positivist | Mixed | |||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Science Fiction | N | Y | Cross-Consistency Assessment (CCA) | Check internal coherence of scenario sets | Time | Constructivist/Realist | Post-positivist | Mixed |
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Morphological analysis | Structure driver/state spaces; combine logics | Time | Constructivist | Interpretive | Mixed | |||
| Space | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Delphi (exploratory/explanatory; Policy Delphi) | Elicit divergent causal assumptions and hypotheses | Space | Constructivist | Interpretive | Mixed | |||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Scenario Writing/Storytelling (incl. CLA) | Compose coherent alternative futures | Time | Critical/Constructivist | Interpretive | Qualitative | |||
| Space | ||||||||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Design Fiction/Sci-Fi Prototyping | Trigger imagination; test assumptions | Space | Constructivist | Interpretive | Qualitative | |||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Serious Games/Role-Play | Experiential sense-making with stakeholders | Space | Constructivist | Interpretive | Qualitative (participatory) | |||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Visioning/Normative Delphi (+Backcasting) | Define desirable futures and pathways | Space | Constructivist | Critical | Qualitative | |||
| Agency | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Utopia/Dystopia | N | N | Dystopian Scenario Writing | Cautionary narratives/stress cases | Time | Constructivist | Interpretive | Qualitative |
| Space | ||||||||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Dystopian Design Fiction/Stress Games | Explore extreme “what-ifs” | Space | Constructivist | Interpretive | Qualitative (participatory) | |||
| Uncertainty | ||||||||
| Entropy |
Note(s): * TC = Truth Claim; EC = Explanatory Claim, Y=Yes, N=No; ** descriptive Ontology/Epistemology (i.e. not constitutive); *** depends on the methods