Table 6 Regime transitions, economic... | Emerald Publishing

Table 6

Regime transitions, economic drivers and expected regime duration in South Africa

	Panel A: Major regime transitions and underlying economic drivers
Period	Event	Regime behavior	Primary economic driver
2008–2009	Global Financial Crisis	Sharp switch to S = 2	External demand shock and banking sector stress
2015–2017	Political and Commodity Shock	Elevated switching volatility	Domestic policy uncertainty and adverse terms-of-trade movements
2020	COVID-19 Pandemic	Near-certain transition to S = 2	Global pandemic shock and national lockdown measures
2022–2023	Energy Crisis	Persistent high-stress regime	Electricity supply disruptions and aggressive monetary tightening

	Panel A: Major regime transitions and underlying economic drivers
Period	Event	Regime behavior	Primary economic driver
2008–2009	Global Financial Crisis	Sharp switch to S = 2	External demand shock and banking sector stress
2015–2017	Political and Commodity Shock	Elevated switching volatility	Domestic policy uncertainty and adverse terms-of-trade movements
2020	COVID-19 Pandemic	Near-certain transition to S = 2	Global pandemic shock and national lockdown measures
2022–2023	Energy Crisis	Persistent high-stress regime	Electricity supply disruptions and aggressive monetary tightening

Panel B: Expected duration of regimes
Regime	Estimate	Std. error	95% confidence interval
State 1 (Low)	43.43	31.31	[10.99, 181.23]
State 2 (High)	18.21	14.62	[4.26, 91.97]