Abnormal returns and potential overpayment
| Market-adjusted model | Market model | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| OFFERPREM | ACAR [−1; +1] | ACAR [−2; +2] | ACAR [−1; +1] | ACAR [−2; +2] | |
| T52WKHI | 0.156*** | −0.003 | −0.008 | −0.003 | −0.006 |
| (9.76) | (−0.38) | (−0.64) | (−0.41) | (−0.52) | |
| Constant | 1.078*** | 0.532*** | 0.732*** | 0.447*** | 0.726*** |
| (38.32) | (7.19) | (7.08) | (7.18) | (6.53) | |
| Deal characteristics | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Acquirer characteristics | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Target characteristics | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Acquirer Industry FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Target Industry FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Obs. | 489 | 324 | 301 | 324 | 301 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.162 | 0.271 | 0.305 | 0.257 | 0.284 |
| Market-adjusted model | Market model | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| OFFERPREM | ACAR [−1; +1] | ACAR [−2; +2] | ACAR [−1; +1] | ACAR [−2; +2] | |
| T52WKHI | 0.156*** | −0.003 | −0.008 | −0.003 | −0.006 |
| (9.76) | (−0.38) | (−0.64) | (−0.41) | (−0.52) | |
| Constant | 1.078*** | 0.532*** | 0.732*** | 0.447*** | 0.726*** |
| (38.32) | (7.19) | (7.08) | (7.18) | (6.53) | |
| Deal characteristics | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Acquirer characteristics | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Target characteristics | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Acquirer Industry FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Target Industry FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Obs. | 489 | 324 | 301 | 324 | 301 |
| Adj. | 0.162 | 0.271 | 0.305 | 0.257 | 0.284 |
Note(s): This table presents results of regressing the target's 52-week-high stock price on the offer premium. OFFERPREM is the offer price shown as a percentage difference from the respective target's market price 30 days prior to the deal announcement. T52WKHI is the target's 52-week high – the highest price over 335-day period ending 30 days prior to the announcement date. The 52-week high is expressed as a percentage difference from the respective target's market price 30 days prior to the deal announcement. Column (1) shows the regression of OFFERPREM on T52WKHI. Columns (2) and (3) present the regressions of ACAR[−1; +1] and ACAR[−2; +2], estimated by the market-adjusted model, on T52WKHI, respectively. Columns (4) and (5) display the regressions of ACAR[−1; +1] and ACAR[−2; +2], estimated by the market model, on T52WKHI, respectively. Control variables include characteristics of deals (DSIZE, DDIV, DCROSS, DMUL, DCASH, DSTOCK), acquirers (AMKCAP, AASSETS, ALEV, AMTB, AROE) and of targets (TMKCAP, TASSETS, TLEV, TMTB, TROE). Appendix 2 provides definitions of all variables. t-statistics are reported in parentheses. *** denotes statistical significance at 1% level
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