Hypotheses, expected signs, and interpretations for the CO2 emissions model
| Hypothesis | Expected sign | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| H2a: γ1 > 0 | Positive | Expansion of built-up areas (BU) is expected to increase CO2 emissions per capita due to higher energy consumption and transportation demand |
| H2b: γ2 < 0 | Negative | A higher share of forest area (FOR) is expected to reduce CO2 emissions by enhancing carbon sequestration capacity |
| H2c: γ3 < 0 | Negative | The “green buffer” effect also applies to CO2 emissions: forests mitigate the effects of urbanization on these emissions |
| H2d: γ4 > 0 | Positive | Higher GDP per capita tends to increase CO2 emissions by driving greater energy consumption and mobility demand, particularly in the early stages of economic development |
| H2e: γ5 ≥ 0 | Positive or weakly positive | A higher urban population share (URB) may contribute to increased emissions due to concentrated industrial and transport activity |
| H2f: γ6 ? | Ambiguous | The effect of arable land (ARB) on CO2 emissions is uncertain and depends on agricultural intensity and land-use practices |
| Hypothesis | Expected sign | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| H2a: γ1 > 0 | Positive | Expansion of built-up areas (BU) is expected to increase CO2 emissions per capita due to higher energy consumption and transportation demand |
| H2b: γ2 < 0 | Negative | A higher share of forest area (FOR) is expected to reduce CO2 emissions by enhancing carbon sequestration capacity |
| H2c: γ3 < 0 | Negative | The “green buffer” effect also applies to CO2 emissions: forests mitigate the effects of urbanization on these emissions |
| H2d: γ4 > 0 | Positive | Higher GDP per capita tends to increase CO2 emissions by driving greater energy consumption and mobility demand, particularly in the early stages of economic development |
| H2e: γ5 ≥ 0 | Positive or weakly positive | A higher urban population share (URB) may contribute to increased emissions due to concentrated industrial and transport activity |
| H2f: γ6 ? | Ambiguous | The effect of arable land (ARB) on CO2 emissions is uncertain and depends on agricultural intensity and land-use practices |