P&L’s of volatility arbitrage strategy
| Maturity | Model | MPL | (%) | A | G (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. China 50 ETF options | |||||
| 10–90 days | SVI | −0.0019 | −12.98 | 434 | 46.88 |
| Spline | 0.0008 | 1.94 | 439 | 57.86 | |
| >90 days | SVI | 0.0006 | 0.33 | 139 | 53.24 |
| Spline | 0.0007 | 0.43 | 164 | 51.83 | |
| All | SVI | −0.0013 | −9.76 | 573 | 48.43 |
| Spline | 0.0008 | 1.53 | 603 | 56.22 | |
| B. CSI 300 index options | |||||
| 10–90 days | SVI | −0.1463 | −0.31 | 584 | 52.23 |
| Spline | 0.9192 | 1.09 | 632 | 50.63 | |
| >90 days | SVI | −0.6928 | −0.15 | 269 | 49.44 |
| Spline | 0.5453 | 0.28 | 714 | 49.30 | |
| All | SVI | −0.3186 | −0.26 | 853 | 51.35 |
| Spline | 0.7209 | 0.66 | 1,346 | 49.93 | |
| C. Soybean meal futures options | |||||
| 10–90 days | SVI | 2.0165 | 5.05 | 307 | 63.19 |
| Spline | 2.5306 | 3.97 | 316 | 62.66 | |
| 91–180 days | SVI | 5.1163 | 9.99 | 276 | 65.94 |
| Spline | 0.7903 | 1.70 | 282 | 59.22 | |
| >180 days | SVI | 5.0666 | 5.71 | 161 | 60.25 |
| Spline | 3.7108 | 3.42 | 166 | 66.27 | |
| All | SVI | 3.8265 | 7.03 | 744 | 63.58 |
| Spline | 2.1447 | 3.02 | 764 | 62.17 | |
| D. Copper futures options | |||||
| 10–90 days | SVI | 19.8712 | 1.99 | 306 | 53.59 |
| Spline | 25.5436 | 3.05 | 371 | 59.84 | |
| >90 days | SVI | 144.3640 | 16.23 | 204 | 65.69 |
| Spline | 31.3453 | 4.42 | 222 | 51.80 | |
| All | SVI | 69.6683 | 7.69 | 510 | 58.43 |
| Spline | 27.7156 | 3.56 | 593 | 56.83 | |
| Maturity | Model | MPL | A | G (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–90 days | SVI | −0.0019 | −12.98 | 434 | 46.88 |
| Spline | 0.0008 | 1.94 | 439 | 57.86 | |
| >90 days | SVI | 0.0006 | 0.33 | 139 | 53.24 |
| Spline | 0.0007 | 0.43 | 164 | 51.83 | |
| All | SVI | −0.0013 | −9.76 | 573 | 48.43 |
| Spline | 0.0008 | 1.53 | 603 | 56.22 | |
| 10–90 days | SVI | −0.1463 | −0.31 | 584 | 52.23 |
| Spline | 0.9192 | 1.09 | 632 | 50.63 | |
| >90 days | SVI | −0.6928 | −0.15 | 269 | 49.44 |
| Spline | 0.5453 | 0.28 | 714 | 49.30 | |
| All | SVI | −0.3186 | −0.26 | 853 | 51.35 |
| Spline | 0.7209 | 0.66 | 1,346 | 49.93 | |
| 10–90 days | SVI | 2.0165 | 5.05 | 307 | 63.19 |
| Spline | 2.5306 | 3.97 | 316 | 62.66 | |
| 91–180 days | SVI | 5.1163 | 9.99 | 276 | 65.94 |
| Spline | 0.7903 | 1.70 | 282 | 59.22 | |
| >180 days | SVI | 5.0666 | 5.71 | 161 | 60.25 |
| Spline | 3.7108 | 3.42 | 166 | 66.27 | |
| All | SVI | 3.8265 | 7.03 | 744 | 63.58 |
| Spline | 2.1447 | 3.02 | 764 | 62.17 | |
| 10–90 days | SVI | 19.8712 | 1.99 | 306 | 53.59 |
| Spline | 25.5436 | 3.05 | 371 | 59.84 | |
| >90 days | SVI | 144.3640 | 16.23 | 204 | 65.69 |
| Spline | 31.3453 | 4.42 | 222 | 51.80 | |
| All | SVI | 69.6683 | 7.69 | 510 | 58.43 |
| Spline | 27.7156 | 3.56 | 593 | 56.83 | |
Note(s): SVI: the SSVI model in Gatheral and Jacquier (2014). Spline: 5th-order spline interpolation with one knot at moneyness one. Vol-arb strategy: long/short the option with the market implied volatility most deviated from that of the SVI or spline model among the six options closest to at-the-money. Maturity: in calendar days. MPL: means of arbitrage P&L. : average of , where is the day-1 arbitrage P&L and is the day-0 option price. A: number of arbitrage days. G (%): percentage of arbitrage days with gains
Source(s): Authors’ own work
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