Model selection – top five ARDL specifications by AIC
| Rank | Specification | AIC | SBC | Adj. R2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARDL(2, 1, 3, 2, 0) | −4.872 | −4.341 | 0.463 |
| 2 | ARDL(2, 2, 3, 2, 0) | −4.858 | −4.298 | 0.461 |
| 3 | ARDL(3, 1, 3, 2, 0) | −4.843 | −4.267 | 0.459 |
| 4 | ARDL(2, 1, 4, 2, 0) | −4.831 | −4.242 | 0.457 |
| 5 | ARDL(2, 1, 3, 3, 0) | −4.824 | −4.235 | 0.455 |
| Rank | Specification | AIC | SBC | Adj. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARDL(2, 1, 3, 2, 0) | −4.872 | −4.341 | 0.463 |
| 2 | ARDL(2, 2, 3, 2, 0) | −4.858 | −4.298 | 0.461 |
| 3 | ARDL(3, 1, 3, 2, 0) | −4.843 | −4.267 | 0.459 |
| 4 | ARDL(2, 1, 4, 2, 0) | −4.831 | −4.242 | 0.457 |
| 5 | ARDL(2, 1, 3, 3, 0) | −4.824 | −4.235 | 0.455 |
Note(s): Maximum lag = 4. RECAP enters as an unrestricted exogenous regressor in all specifications
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