ARIMA model parameter settings and results
| ARIMA model | p, d, q | RMSE (train) | RMSE (test) | PE (train) | PE (test) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | World total vessel | 4, 1, 0 | 218.12 | 483.05 | 3.94% | 4.57% |
| World crude oil vessel | 3, 1, 5 | 76.58 | 78.12 | 5.09% | 4.35% | |
| World dry cargo vessel | 3, 1, 3 | 154.67 | 405.31 | 4.50% | 5.37% | |
| World other tanker trade vessel | 6, 1, 1 | 65.55 | 66.70 | 11.05% | 5.39% | |
| Supply | World total vessel | 7, 0, 5 | 40.64 | 154.57 | 4.77% | 8.10% |
| World oil tanker vessel | 7, 1, 2 | 26.75 | 50.82 | 8.47% | 9.31% | |
| World bulk carrier vessel | 6, 0, 1 | 19.42 | 61.57 | 6.45% | 7.54% | |
| World general cargo vessel | 0, 1, 2 | 2.21 | 0.93 | 2.18% | 1.21% | |
| World container vessel | 2, 1, 3 | 2.54 | 22.67 | 3.70% | 9.01% | |
| World other types of vessel | 4, 1, 0 | 7.09 | 20.16 | 10.89% | 9.24% |
| ARIMA model | p, d, q | RMSE (train) | RMSE (test) | PE (train) | PE (test) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | World total vessel | 4, 1, 0 | 218.12 | 483.05 | 3.94% | 4.57% |
| World crude oil vessel | 3, 1, 5 | 76.58 | 78.12 | 5.09% | 4.35% | |
| World dry cargo vessel | 3, 1, 3 | 154.67 | 405.31 | 4.50% | 5.37% | |
| World other tanker trade vessel | 6, 1, 1 | 65.55 | 66.70 | 11.05% | 5.39% | |
| Supply | World total vessel | 7, 0, 5 | 40.64 | 154.57 | 4.77% | 8.10% |
| World oil tanker vessel | 7, 1, 2 | 26.75 | 50.82 | 8.47% | 9.31% | |
| World bulk carrier vessel | 6, 0, 1 | 19.42 | 61.57 | 6.45% | 7.54% | |
| World general cargo vessel | 0, 1, 2 | 2.21 | 0.93 | 2.18% | 1.21% | |
| World container vessel | 2, 1, 3 | 2.54 | 22.67 | 3.70% | 9.01% | |
| World other types of vessel | 4, 1, 0 | 7.09 | 20.16 | 10.89% | 9.24% |
Source(s): Table by authors
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