Table 6 Robustness to lagged explanatory...

Table 6

Robustness to lagged explanatory variables

Variable	Baseline	1-Year lag	2-Year lag
Panel A: TDS/Exports
Natural resource depletion	0.441**	0.428**	0.398*
Natural resource depletion	(0.188)	(0.192)	(0.208)
Adjusted net savings	−0.286*	−0.298*	−0.312*
Adjusted net savings	(0.162)	(0.168)	(0.182)
Natural resource rents	−0.044	−0.052	−0.068
Natural resource rents	(0.098)	(0.102)	(0.112)
Panel B: TDS/GNI
Natural resource depletion	0.188	0.172	0.156
Natural resource depletion	(0.142)	(0.148)	(0.158)
Adjusted net savings	−0.224**	−0.238**	−0.252**
Adjusted net savings	(0.098)	(0.104)	(0.112)
Natural resource rents	−0.168**	−0.178**	−0.192**
Natural resource rents	(0.074)	(0.078)	(0.084)

Variable	Baseline	1-Year lag	2-Year lag
Panel A: TDS/Exports
Natural resource depletion	0.441**	0.428**	0.398*
Natural resource depletion	(0.188)	(0.192)	(0.208)
Adjusted net savings	−0.286*	−0.298*	−0.312*
Adjusted net savings	(0.162)	(0.168)	(0.182)
Natural resource rents	−0.044	−0.052	−0.068
Natural resource rents	(0.098)	(0.102)	(0.112)
Panel B: TDS/GNI
Natural resource depletion	0.188	0.172	0.156
Natural resource depletion	(0.142)	(0.148)	(0.158)
Adjusted net savings	−0.224**	−0.238**	−0.252**
Adjusted net savings	(0.098)	(0.104)	(0.112)
Natural resource rents	−0.168**	−0.178**	−0.192**
Natural resource rents	(0.074)	(0.078)	(0.084)

Note(s): PMG long-run coefficients reported. Controls included but not shown. Standard errors in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.10. The persistence of coefficient signs and magnitudes across lag structures supports the interpretation of wealth depletion as a leading determinant of debt-service burdens rather than a contemporaneous correlate or reverse-causal outcome

Source(s): Author's computation using Stata 18 (2025)

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