Table 1 Projected impacts of climate...

Table 1

Projected impacts of climate change on land productivity in the lower quantile per hectare (cumulative change, 2021–2050) (0.25 quartile)

Federal unit	RCP 4.5				RCP 8.5
Federal unit	Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)		Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)
Rondônia	18.0%	0.156	13.7%	22.2%	13.0%	0.144	9.1%	16.9%
Acre	0.4%	0.058	−2.2%	3.1%	−7.6%	0.066	−10.6%	−4.5%
Amazonas	−2.1%	0.264	−9.8%	5.6%	−9.6%	0.234	−16.5%	−2.8%
Roraima	−35.3%	0.107	−41.2%	−29.5%	−29.0%	0.101	−34.5%	−23.5%
Stop	−52.9%	0.282	−57.9%	−48.0%	−64.6%	0.225	−68.5%	−60.6%
Amapá	−79.6%	0.070	−83.6%	−75.7%	−80.5%	0.067	−84.3%	−76.7%
Tocantins	−57.7%	0.079	−59.3%	−56.0%	−65.4%	0.070	−66.9%	−63.9%
Maranhão	−26.3%	0.499	−33.8%	−18.8%	−39.1%	0.708	−49.6%	−28.5%
Piauí	−28.2%	0.322	−33.0%	−23.5%	−28.2%	0.379	−33.8%	−22.6%
Ceará	1.7%	0.250	−2.3%	5.6%	9.1%	0.600	−0.3%	18.5%
Rio Grande do Norte	−2.4%	0.101	−4.2%	−0.7%	−5.6%	0.115	−7.5%	−3.6%
Paraíba	−4.8%	0.091	−6.2%	−3.4%	−7.6%	0.106	−9.2%	−6.0%
Pernambuco	−10.8%	0.156	−13.3%	−8.4%	−9.3%	0.160	−11.8%	−6.7%
Alagoas	−14.0%	0.127	−17.1%	−10.9%	−17.3%	0.103	−19.8%	−14.7%
Sergipe	−24.0%	0.145	−27.7%	−20.3%	−26.8%	0.134	−30.2%	−23.4%
Bahia	−39.7%	0.158	−41.3%	−38.1%	−41.6%	0.163	−43.2%	−39.9%
Minas Gerais	−35.9%	0.200	−37.3%	−34.4%	−46.8%	0.164	−48.0%	−45.7%
Espírito Santo	−37.7%	0.208	−42.4%	−33.0%	−49.5%	0.136	−52.6%	−46.4%
Rio de Janeiro	−31.4%	0.225	−36.4%	−26.3%	−43.0%	0.161	−46.7%	−39.4%
São Paulo	−21.3%	0.092	−22.1%	−20.5%	−33.1%	0.108	−34.1%	−32.2%
Paraná	3.3%	0.244	0.7%	5.9%	1.7%	0.271	−1.1%	4.6%
Santa Catarina	−2.7%	0.201	−5.1%	−0.4%	3.6%	0.224	1.0%	6.2%
Rio Grande do Sul	11.4%	0.286	8.9%	14.0%	26.6%	0.415	22.9%	30.3%
Mato Grosso do Sul	11.8%	0.133	8.7%	14.9%	6.8%	0.153	3.3%	10.4%
Mato Grosso	−0.9%	0.149	−3.5%	1.7%	−8.9%	0.150	−11.5%	−6.3%
Goiás	−36.6%	0.081	−37.8%	−35.5%	−50.3%	0.059	−51.1%	−49.5%

Federal unit	RCP 4.5				RCP 8.5
Federal unit	Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)		Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)
Rondônia	18.0%	0.156	13.7%	22.2%	13.0%	0.144	9.1%	16.9%
Acre	0.4%	0.058	−2.2%	3.1%	−7.6%	0.066	−10.6%	−4.5%
Amazonas	−2.1%	0.264	−9.8%	5.6%	−9.6%	0.234	−16.5%	−2.8%
Roraima	−35.3%	0.107	−41.2%	−29.5%	−29.0%	0.101	−34.5%	−23.5%
Stop	−52.9%	0.282	−57.9%	−48.0%	−64.6%	0.225	−68.5%	−60.6%
Amapá	−79.6%	0.070	−83.6%	−75.7%	−80.5%	0.067	−84.3%	−76.7%
Tocantins	−57.7%	0.079	−59.3%	−56.0%	−65.4%	0.070	−66.9%	−63.9%
Maranhão	−26.3%	0.499	−33.8%	−18.8%	−39.1%	0.708	−49.6%	−28.5%
Piauí	−28.2%	0.322	−33.0%	−23.5%	−28.2%	0.379	−33.8%	−22.6%
Ceará	1.7%	0.250	−2.3%	5.6%	9.1%	0.600	−0.3%	18.5%
Rio Grande do Norte	−2.4%	0.101	−4.2%	−0.7%	−5.6%	0.115	−7.5%	−3.6%
Paraíba	−4.8%	0.091	−6.2%	−3.4%	−7.6%	0.106	−9.2%	−6.0%
Pernambuco	−10.8%	0.156	−13.3%	−8.4%	−9.3%	0.160	−11.8%	−6.7%
Alagoas	−14.0%	0.127	−17.1%	−10.9%	−17.3%	0.103	−19.8%	−14.7%
Sergipe	−24.0%	0.145	−27.7%	−20.3%	−26.8%	0.134	−30.2%	−23.4%
Bahia	−39.7%	0.158	−41.3%	−38.1%	−41.6%	0.163	−43.2%	−39.9%
Minas Gerais	−35.9%	0.200	−37.3%	−34.4%	−46.8%	0.164	−48.0%	−45.7%
Espírito Santo	−37.7%	0.208	−42.4%	−33.0%	−49.5%	0.136	−52.6%	−46.4%
Rio de Janeiro	−31.4%	0.225	−36.4%	−26.3%	−43.0%	0.161	−46.7%	−39.4%
São Paulo	−21.3%	0.092	−22.1%	−20.5%	−33.1%	0.108	−34.1%	−32.2%
Paraná	3.3%	0.244	0.7%	5.9%	1.7%	0.271	−1.1%	4.6%
Santa Catarina	−2.7%	0.201	−5.1%	−0.4%	3.6%	0.224	1.0%	6.2%
Rio Grande do Sul	11.4%	0.286	8.9%	14.0%	26.6%	0.415	22.9%	30.3%
Mato Grosso do Sul	11.8%	0.133	8.7%	14.9%	6.8%	0.153	3.3%	10.4%
Mato Grosso	−0.9%	0.149	−3.5%	1.7%	−8.9%	0.150	−11.5%	−6.3%
Goiás	−36.6%	0.081	−37.8%	−35.5%	−50.3%	0.059	−51.1%	−49.5%

Source(s): Prepared by the authors

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