Table 2 Projected impacts of climate...

Table 2

Projected impacts of climate change on median land productivity per hectare (cumulative change, 2021–2050) (0.50 quantile)

Federal unit	RCP 4.5				RCP 8.5
Federal unit	Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)		Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)
Rondônia	40.7%	0.196	35.4%	46.0%	43.9%	0.209	38.3%	49.6%
Acre	7.6%	0.118	2.1%	13.0%	0.4%	0.119	−5.1%	5.9%
Amazonas	7.0%	0.268	−0.9%	14.8%	1.7%	0.255	−5.8%	9.1%
Roraima	−14.1%	0.127	−21.0%	−7.2%	2.4%	0.127	−4.5%	9.3%
Stop	−50.5%	0.303	−55.8%	−45.2%	−58.5%	0.254	−63.0%	−54.1%
Amapá	−76.4%	0.080	−80.9%	−71.9%	−74.0%	0.091	−79.1%	−68.9%
Tocantins	−47.0%	0.103	−49.1%	−44.8%	−52.1%	0.119	−54.6%	−49.6%
Maranhão	−26.3%	0.364	−31.8%	−20.9%	−35.4%	0.562	−43.8%	−27.0%
Piauí	−23.5%	0.237	−27.0%	−19.9%	−24.0%	0.258	−27.8%	−20.2%
Ceará	0.0%	0.164	−2.6%	2.6%	−0.1%	0.414	−6.6%	6.4%
Rio Grande do Norte	−8.5%	0.106	−10.3%	−6.7%	−17.7%	0.121	−19.8%	−15.7%
Paraíba	−6.7%	0.133	−8.7%	−4.7%	−12.7%	0.142	−14.9%	−10.6%
Pernambuco	−11.8%	0.154	−14.3%	−9.4%	−12.0%	0.164	−14.5%	−9.4%
Alagoas	−21.6%	0.123	−24.6%	−18.6%	−26.6%	0.070	−28.3%	−24.8%
Sergipe	−33.3%	0.132	−36.7%	−30.0%	−37.4%	0.097	−39.8%	−34.9%
Bahia	−43.5%	0.140	−44.9%	−42.0%	−45.1%	0.140	−46.5%	−43.7%
Minas Gerais	−21.7%	0.357	−24.3%	−19.2%	−33.6%	0.303	−35.8%	−31.4%
Espírito Santo	−35.8%	0.228	−40.9%	−30.6%	−49.0%	0.161	−52.6%	−45.4%
Rio de Janeiro	−23.9%	0.253	−29.6%	−18.2%	−37.2%	0.185	−41.3%	−33.0%
São Paulo	5.6%	0.175	4.1%	7.2%	1.3%	0.210	−0.5%	3.2%
Paraná	21.1%	0.468	16.2%	26.1%	33.6%	0.582	27.5%	39.7%
Santa Catarina	−15.7%	0.219	−18.3%	−13.2%	−7.1%	0.276	−10.3%	−3.9%
Rio Grande do Sul	−2.2%	0.350	−5.3%	1.0%	18.7%	0.504	14.2%	23.2%
Mato Grosso do Sul	73.7%	0.256	67.7%	79.6%	89.2%	0.325	81.7%	96.8%
Mato Grosso	21.6%	0.159	18.8%	24.4%	20.5%	0.179	17.4%	23.6%
Goiás	−15.4%	0.123	−17.1%	−13.7%	−27.5%	0.108	−29.1%	−26.0%

Federal unit	RCP 4.5				RCP 8.5
Federal unit	Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)		Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)
Rondônia	40.7%	0.196	35.4%	46.0%	43.9%	0.209	38.3%	49.6%
Acre	7.6%	0.118	2.1%	13.0%	0.4%	0.119	−5.1%	5.9%
Amazonas	7.0%	0.268	−0.9%	14.8%	1.7%	0.255	−5.8%	9.1%
Roraima	−14.1%	0.127	−21.0%	−7.2%	2.4%	0.127	−4.5%	9.3%
Stop	−50.5%	0.303	−55.8%	−45.2%	−58.5%	0.254	−63.0%	−54.1%
Amapá	−76.4%	0.080	−80.9%	−71.9%	−74.0%	0.091	−79.1%	−68.9%
Tocantins	−47.0%	0.103	−49.1%	−44.8%	−52.1%	0.119	−54.6%	−49.6%
Maranhão	−26.3%	0.364	−31.8%	−20.9%	−35.4%	0.562	−43.8%	−27.0%
Piauí	−23.5%	0.237	−27.0%	−19.9%	−24.0%	0.258	−27.8%	−20.2%
Ceará	0.0%	0.164	−2.6%	2.6%	−0.1%	0.414	−6.6%	6.4%
Rio Grande do Norte	−8.5%	0.106	−10.3%	−6.7%	−17.7%	0.121	−19.8%	−15.7%
Paraíba	−6.7%	0.133	−8.7%	−4.7%	−12.7%	0.142	−14.9%	−10.6%
Pernambuco	−11.8%	0.154	−14.3%	−9.4%	−12.0%	0.164	−14.5%	−9.4%
Alagoas	−21.6%	0.123	−24.6%	−18.6%	−26.6%	0.070	−28.3%	−24.8%
Sergipe	−33.3%	0.132	−36.7%	−30.0%	−37.4%	0.097	−39.8%	−34.9%
Bahia	−43.5%	0.140	−44.9%	−42.0%	−45.1%	0.140	−46.5%	−43.7%
Minas Gerais	−21.7%	0.357	−24.3%	−19.2%	−33.6%	0.303	−35.8%	−31.4%
Espírito Santo	−35.8%	0.228	−40.9%	−30.6%	−49.0%	0.161	−52.6%	−45.4%
Rio de Janeiro	−23.9%	0.253	−29.6%	−18.2%	−37.2%	0.185	−41.3%	−33.0%
São Paulo	5.6%	0.175	4.1%	7.2%	1.3%	0.210	−0.5%	3.2%
Paraná	21.1%	0.468	16.2%	26.1%	33.6%	0.582	27.5%	39.7%
Santa Catarina	−15.7%	0.219	−18.3%	−13.2%	−7.1%	0.276	−10.3%	−3.9%
Rio Grande do Sul	−2.2%	0.350	−5.3%	1.0%	18.7%	0.504	14.2%	23.2%
Mato Grosso do Sul	73.7%	0.256	67.7%	79.6%	89.2%	0.325	81.7%	96.8%
Mato Grosso	21.6%	0.159	18.8%	24.4%	20.5%	0.179	17.4%	23.6%
Goiás	−15.4%	0.123	−17.1%	−13.7%	−27.5%	0.108	−29.1%	−26.0%

Source(s): Prepared by the authors

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