Table 3 Projected impacts of climate...

Table 3

Projected impacts of climate change on land productivity in the top quartile per hectare (cumulative change, 2021–2050) (0.75 quartile)

Federal unit	RCP 4.5				RCP 8.5
Federal unit	Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)		Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)
Rondônia	49.4%	0.253	42.5%	56.3%	67.9%	0.351	58.4%	77.5%
Acre	4.6%	0.139	−1.8%	11.1%	1.8%	0.139	−4.6%	8.2%
Amazonas	3.3%	0.311	−5.8%	12.3%	2.0%	0.323	−7.5%	11.4%
Roraima	22.4%	0.139	14.9%	30.0%	57.0%	0.282	41.6%	72.3%
Stop	−52.7%	0.276	−57.6%	−47.9%	−53.5%	0.264	−58.2%	−48.9%
Amapá	−73.7%	0.082	−78.3%	−69.0%	−66.6%	0.111	−72.8%	−60.3%
Tocantins	−34.9%	0.154	−38.2%	−31.7%	−28.9%	0.227	−33.7%	−24.1%
Maranhão	−32.6%	0.269	−36.6%	−28.6%	−30.5%	0.544	−38.6%	−22.4%
Piaui	−18.3%	0.170	−20.8%	−15.8%	−10.2%	0.210	−13.3%	−7.1%
Ceará	−6.8%	0.174	−9.5%	−4.0%	−2.4%	0.442	−9.3%	4.5%
Rio Grande do Norte	−17.5%	0.122	−19.6%	−15.4%	−26.8%	0.141	−29.2%	−24.4%
Paraíba	−10.0%	0.136	−12.0%	−7.9%	−14.8%	0.162	−17.2%	−12.3%
Pernambuco	−12.6%	0.128	−14.6%	−10.6%	−10.7%	0.153	−13.1%	−8.3%
Alagoas	−23.5%	0.171	−27.7%	−19.3%	−28.4%	0.088	−30.5%	−26.3%
Sergipe	−36.6%	0.132	−40.0%	−33.2%	−40.6%	0.073	−42.4%	−38.7%
Bahia	−41.9%	0.145	−43.4%	−40.4%	−41.2%	0.143	−42.7%	−39.8%
Minas Gerais	−14.4%	0.474	−17.8%	−11.0%	−19.6%	0.473	−23.0%	−16.2%
Espírito Santo	−37.6%	0.239	−43.0%	−32.2%	−47.1%	0.180	−51.1%	−43.0%
Rio de Janeiro	−26.2%	0.250	−31.8%	−20.6%	−34.7%	0.203	−39.3%	−30.2%
São Paulo	31.8%	0.392	28.3%	35.3%	51.9%	0.568	46.8%	56.9%
Paraná	46.1%	0.867	37.0%	55.2%	91.0%	1.304	77.2%	104.7%
Santa Catarina	−24.1%	0.286	−27.4%	−20.8%	−12.6%	0.425	−17.5%	−7.7%
Rio Grande do Sul	−6.2%	0.453	−10.2%	−2.1%	23.8%	0.730	17.3%	30.4%
Mato Grosso do Sul	172.3%	0.568	159.1%	185.5%	255.1%	0.854	235.2%	275.0%
Mato Grosso	31.6%	0.210	28.0%	35.3%	48.8%	0.296	43.7%	54.0%
Goiás	3.4%	0.191	0.7%	6.2%	5.3%	0.217	2.2%	8.4%

Federal unit	RCP 4.5				RCP 8.5
Federal unit	Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)		Average change	Standard deviation	Confidence interval (95%)
Rondônia	49.4%	0.253	42.5%	56.3%	67.9%	0.351	58.4%	77.5%
Acre	4.6%	0.139	−1.8%	11.1%	1.8%	0.139	−4.6%	8.2%
Amazonas	3.3%	0.311	−5.8%	12.3%	2.0%	0.323	−7.5%	11.4%
Roraima	22.4%	0.139	14.9%	30.0%	57.0%	0.282	41.6%	72.3%
Stop	−52.7%	0.276	−57.6%	−47.9%	−53.5%	0.264	−58.2%	−48.9%
Amapá	−73.7%	0.082	−78.3%	−69.0%	−66.6%	0.111	−72.8%	−60.3%
Tocantins	−34.9%	0.154	−38.2%	−31.7%	−28.9%	0.227	−33.7%	−24.1%
Maranhão	−32.6%	0.269	−36.6%	−28.6%	−30.5%	0.544	−38.6%	−22.4%
Piaui	−18.3%	0.170	−20.8%	−15.8%	−10.2%	0.210	−13.3%	−7.1%
Ceará	−6.8%	0.174	−9.5%	−4.0%	−2.4%	0.442	−9.3%	4.5%
Rio Grande do Norte	−17.5%	0.122	−19.6%	−15.4%	−26.8%	0.141	−29.2%	−24.4%
Paraíba	−10.0%	0.136	−12.0%	−7.9%	−14.8%	0.162	−17.2%	−12.3%
Pernambuco	−12.6%	0.128	−14.6%	−10.6%	−10.7%	0.153	−13.1%	−8.3%
Alagoas	−23.5%	0.171	−27.7%	−19.3%	−28.4%	0.088	−30.5%	−26.3%
Sergipe	−36.6%	0.132	−40.0%	−33.2%	−40.6%	0.073	−42.4%	−38.7%
Bahia	−41.9%	0.145	−43.4%	−40.4%	−41.2%	0.143	−42.7%	−39.8%
Minas Gerais	−14.4%	0.474	−17.8%	−11.0%	−19.6%	0.473	−23.0%	−16.2%
Espírito Santo	−37.6%	0.239	−43.0%	−32.2%	−47.1%	0.180	−51.1%	−43.0%
Rio de Janeiro	−26.2%	0.250	−31.8%	−20.6%	−34.7%	0.203	−39.3%	−30.2%
São Paulo	31.8%	0.392	28.3%	35.3%	51.9%	0.568	46.8%	56.9%
Paraná	46.1%	0.867	37.0%	55.2%	91.0%	1.304	77.2%	104.7%
Santa Catarina	−24.1%	0.286	−27.4%	−20.8%	−12.6%	0.425	−17.5%	−7.7%
Rio Grande do Sul	−6.2%	0.453	−10.2%	−2.1%	23.8%	0.730	17.3%	30.4%
Mato Grosso do Sul	172.3%	0.568	159.1%	185.5%	255.1%	0.854	235.2%	275.0%
Mato Grosso	31.6%	0.210	28.0%	35.3%	48.8%	0.296	43.7%	54.0%
Goiás	3.4%	0.191	0.7%	6.2%	5.3%	0.217	2.2%	8.4%

Source(s): Prepared by the authors

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