Table 3

Main results – ESG sub-components and earnings volatility

(1) ROA_vol3(2) ROA_vol3_lag(3) ROA_semidev_lag(4) ROA_fwdvol3
E score (t−1)−0.00050.00010.00050.0017***
S score (t−1)0.0011**0.0016**0.0014**−0.0001
G score (t−1)−0.0018*−0.0033***−0.0033***−0.0014
Ln(Assets)−0.0050**−0.0061**−0.0039*−0.0018
Board size−0.0004−0.00020.00030.0001
State ownership0.00000.00000.00000.0000
Foreign ownership0.00010.00000.0000−0.0001
Board independence0.00070.00190.00340.0032
Observations647585585523
Firms62626262
R2 (within)0.05050.06340.06160.0281
Firm and year FEYesYesYesYes

Note(s): ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.10. Standard errors in parentheses. Column 1 uses the conventional rolling volatility SD(ROA_{t-2}, ROA_{t-1}, ROA_t), which shares the year t-1 ROA observation with the ESG regressor and is reported solely for comparability with prior literature. Columns 2 and 3 are the preferred specifications using clean backward-looking windows that exclude the current year, eliminating any mechanical overlap between the dependent variable and the ESG regressor. A diagnostic comparison confirms that the overlap in Column 1 attenuates rather than inflates the main coefficients: the S_dev bias is −5.8 per cent and the G_dev bias is 41.7 per cent, both in the direction of understatement. Column 4 tests whether current ESG signals predict future earnings instability

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