Main results – ESG sub-components and earnings volatility
| (1) ROA_vol3 | (2) ROA_vol3_lag | (3) ROA_semidev_lag | (4) ROA_fwdvol3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E score (t−1) | −0.0005 | 0.0001 | 0.0005 | 0.0017*** |
| S score (t−1) | 0.0011** | 0.0016** | 0.0014** | −0.0001 |
| G score (t−1) | −0.0018* | −0.0033*** | −0.0033*** | −0.0014 |
| Ln(Assets) | −0.0050** | −0.0061** | −0.0039* | −0.0018 |
| Board size | −0.0004 | −0.0002 | 0.0003 | 0.0001 |
| State ownership | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Foreign ownership | 0.0001 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | −0.0001 |
| Board independence | 0.0007 | 0.0019 | 0.0034 | 0.0032 |
| Observations | 647 | 585 | 585 | 523 |
| Firms | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
| R2 (within) | 0.0505 | 0.0634 | 0.0616 | 0.0281 |
| Firm and year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| (1) ROA_vol3 | (2) ROA_vol3_lag | (3) ROA_semidev_lag | (4) ROA_fwdvol3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E score (t−1) | −0.0005 | 0.0001 | 0.0005 | 0.0017*** |
| S score (t−1) | 0.0011** | 0.0016** | 0.0014** | −0.0001 |
| G score (t−1) | −0.0018* | −0.0033*** | −0.0033*** | −0.0014 |
| Ln(Assets) | −0.0050** | −0.0061** | −0.0039* | −0.0018 |
| Board size | −0.0004 | −0.0002 | 0.0003 | 0.0001 |
| State ownership | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Foreign ownership | 0.0001 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | −0.0001 |
| Board independence | 0.0007 | 0.0019 | 0.0034 | 0.0032 |
| Observations | 647 | 585 | 585 | 523 |
| Firms | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
| 0.0505 | 0.0634 | 0.0616 | 0.0281 | |
| Firm and year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Note(s): ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.10. Standard errors in parentheses. Column 1 uses the conventional rolling volatility SD(ROA_{t-2}, ROA_{t-1}, ROA_t), which shares the year t-1 ROA observation with the ESG regressor and is reported solely for comparability with prior literature. Columns 2 and 3 are the preferred specifications using clean backward-looking windows that exclude the current year, eliminating any mechanical overlap between the dependent variable and the ESG regressor. A diagnostic comparison confirms that the overlap in Column 1 attenuates rather than inflates the main coefficients: the S_dev bias is −5.8 per cent and the G_dev bias is 41.7 per cent, both in the direction of understatement. Column 4 tests whether current ESG signals predict future earnings instability
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