The stock-selection timing-flow relationship
| UK | France | Germany | |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1HighNegi,t−1 | −2.123** | 2.368** | −1.198 |
| (−1.99) | (2.22) | (−1.12) | |
| d2MidNegi,t−1 | −5.395** | 0.481 | 0.132 |
| (−5.06) | (0.44) | (0.11) | |
| d3LowNegi,t-1 | −1.002 | 0.529 | 0.034 |
| (−0.94) | (0.49) | (0.02) | |
| d4LowPosi,t−1 | 6.862** | −0.112 | 0.313 |
| (6.43) | (−0.10) | (0.27) | |
| d5MidPosi,t−1 | 3.924** | −0.283 | 0.497 |
| (3.67) | (−0.26) | (0.45) | |
| d6HighPosi,t−1 | 4.312** | −2.612** | 2.142** |
| (4.04) | (−2.45) | (2.01) | |
| Log fund TNAi,t−1 | −0.224** | −0.126** | 0.023 |
| (−3.41) | (−2.54) | (0.36) | |
| Log fund agei,t−1 | −0.648** | −0.030 | −0.332** |
| (−3.94) | (−0.29) | (−2.15) | |
| Expense ratioi,t−1 | −0.048 | −0.026 | −0.007 |
| (−0.58) | (−0.32) | (−0.04) | |
| Fund returni,t−1 | 0.065 | 0.049 | −0.016 |
| (1.40) | (0.73) | (−0.15) | |
| Return volatilityi,t−1 | −0.108 | 0.268 | −0.094 |
| (−0.16) | (0.25) | (−0.12) | |
| Fund flowi,t−1 | 0.020 | 0.112** | 0.163 |
| (0.63) | (1.97) | (1.79) | |
| Cash holdingsi,t−1 | −0.010 | 0.009 | −0.007 |
| (−0.31) | (0.66) | (−0.38) | |
| No of sharesi,t−1 | 0.005 | 0.006 | −0.010 |
| (0.18) | (0.11) | (−0.04) | |
| ESG scorei,t−1 | −0.116** | 0.102** | −0.076 |
| (−2.28) | (2.01) | (−1.65) | |
| R2 | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| Fund FE | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 28,161 | 8,672 | 6,844 |
| UK | France | Germany | |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1HighNeg | −2.123** | 2.368** | −1.198 |
| (−1.99) | (2.22) | (−1.12) | |
| d2MidNeg | −5.395** | 0.481 | 0.132 |
| (−5.06) | (0.44) | (0.11) | |
| d3LowNegi,t-1 | −1.002 | 0.529 | 0.034 |
| (−0.94) | (0.49) | (0.02) | |
| d4LowPos | 6.862** | −0.112 | 0.313 |
| (6.43) | (−0.10) | (0.27) | |
| d5MidPos | 3.924** | −0.283 | 0.497 |
| (3.67) | (−0.26) | (0.45) | |
| d6HighPos | 4.312** | −2.612** | 2.142** |
| (4.04) | (−2.45) | (2.01) | |
| Log fund TNA | −0.224** | −0.126** | 0.023 |
| (−3.41) | (−2.54) | (0.36) | |
| Log fund age | −0.648** | −0.030 | −0.332** |
| (−3.94) | (−0.29) | (−2.15) | |
| Expense ratio | −0.048 | −0.026 | −0.007 |
| (−0.58) | (−0.32) | (−0.04) | |
| Fund return | 0.065 | 0.049 | −0.016 |
| (1.40) | (0.73) | (−0.15) | |
| Return volatility | −0.108 | 0.268 | −0.094 |
| (−0.16) | (0.25) | (−0.12) | |
| Fund flow | 0.020 | 0.112** | 0.163 |
| (0.63) | (1.97) | (1.79) | |
| Cash holdings | −0.010 | 0.009 | −0.007 |
| (−0.31) | (0.66) | (−0.38) | |
| No of shares | 0.005 | 0.006 | −0.010 |
| (0.18) | (0.11) | (−0.04) | |
| ESG score | −0.116** | 0.102** | −0.076 |
| (−2.28) | (2.01) | (−1.65) | |
| 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.42 | |
| Fund FE | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 28,161 | 8,672 | 6,844 |
Note(s): The table above presents the results of a panel regression of fund flows on dummy variables denoting the level of stock-selection skills. The dependent variable is Flowi,t which is the normalized fund flow at month t and is defined as the monthly net fund flow divided by the fund's TNA at the beginning of the month. The terms d1HighNegi,t-1, d2MidNegi,t-1, and d3LowNegi,t-1are indicator variables that take the value of 1 if the fund i displays a high-negative (t ≤ −1.96), medium-negative (−1.96 < t < −1.28), or low negative (−1.28 ≤ t < 0) timing coefficient (gi) and zero otherwise. Dummy variables d4LowPosi,t-1, d5MidPosi,t-1, and d6HighPosi,t-1 are defined analogously for the right tail of the timing estimates distribution; i.e. low-positive (0 ≤ t ≤ 1.28), medium-positive (1.28 < t < 1.96), and high-positive (t ≥ 1.96). Xi,k,t-1 includes all the remaining control variables mentioned in Table 10. We also control for time and fund fixed effects. We employ a cell-means model by estimating the regression without an intercept. T-statistics are provided in parentheses. ** denotes statistical significance at the 5% level. The sample period spans from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2024
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