The marginalisation lock-in and how each barrier reinforces the others
| Barrier | Reinforces | Through what mechanism |
|---|---|---|
| Fragmented approach and ad hoc practice | Capability and methodological gaps | One-off, project-based deployment means staff rotate out before method accumulates, so capability stays dispersed and never consolidates into validated practice |
| Capability and methodological gaps | Measurement and evaluation challenges | Under-resourced units lack the evaluation capacity to demonstrate foresight's value, so impact goes unmeasured and unproven |
| Departmental silos and cross-boundary coordination failures | Fragmented approach and ad hoc practice | Without cross-boundary channels, foresight stays confined to specialist units and its outputs do not travel, entrenching fragmentation |
| Political and budgetary short-termism | Departmental silos; capability and methodological gaps | Annual horizons and electoral churn block the multi-year structural investment needed to relieve silos and build capability |
| Measurement and evaluation challenges | Political and budgetary short-termism | With value undemonstrated, budget authorities have little basis on which to protect multi-year funding, reinforcing short-term allocation |
| Legitimacy and credibility deficits (evidential-standing deficit) | All five (the central barrier) | Foresight that is fragmented, weakly resourced and poorly evaluated is easily dismissed, and dismissal justifies the underinvestment that returns the system to fragmentation |
| Barrier | Reinforces | Through what mechanism |
|---|---|---|
| Fragmented approach and ad hoc practice | Capability and methodological gaps | One-off, project-based deployment means staff rotate out before method accumulates, so capability stays dispersed and never consolidates into validated practice |
| Capability and methodological gaps | Measurement and evaluation challenges | Under-resourced units lack the evaluation capacity to demonstrate foresight's value, so impact goes unmeasured and unproven |
| Departmental silos and cross-boundary coordination failures | Fragmented approach and ad hoc practice | Without cross-boundary channels, foresight stays confined to specialist units and its outputs do not travel, entrenching fragmentation |
| Political and budgetary short-termism | Departmental silos; capability and methodological gaps | Annual horizons and electoral churn block the multi-year structural investment needed to relieve silos and build capability |
| Measurement and evaluation challenges | Political and budgetary short-termism | With value undemonstrated, budget authorities have little basis on which to protect multi-year funding, reinforcing short-term allocation |
| Legitimacy and credibility deficits (evidential-standing deficit) | All five (the central barrier) | Foresight that is fragmented, weakly resourced and poorly evaluated is easily dismissed, and dismissal justifies the underinvestment that returns the system to fragmentation |
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