Comparative modelling performance
| Model | MAE ($/ton) | MSE ($/ton) | RMSE ($/ton) | MAPE (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIMAX (1,1,1) | Training | 14.37 | 1647.43 | 40.59 | 3.55 |
| Validation | 19.35 | 502.87 | 22.42 | 6.30 | |
| Test | 51.41 | 3884.24 | 62.32 | 11.44 | |
| Holdout (24 features) | Training | 55.65 | 4185.43 | 64.69 | 16.75 |
| Validation | 28.62 | 1102.25 | 33.20 | 9.35 | |
| Test | 43.43 | 2502.82 | 50.03 | 8.83 | |
| Holdout (6 features) | Training | 15.19 | 379.63 | 19.52 | 3.76 |
| Validation | 6.39 | 65.90 | 8.11 | 2.04 | |
| Test | 29.36 | 1296.17 | 36.01 | 6.22 | |
| Holdout (3 features) | Training | 8.48 | 129.55 | 11.38 | 2.64 |
| Validation | 5.91 | 61.62 | 7.85 | 1.53 | |
| Test | 24.62 | 939.42 | 30.65 | 5.17 | |
| Model | MSE ($/ton) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIMAX (1,1,1) | Training | 14.37 | 1647.43 | 40.59 | 3.55 |
| Validation | 19.35 | 502.87 | 22.42 | 6.30 | |
| Test | 51.41 | 3884.24 | 62.32 | 11.44 | |
| Holdout (24 features) | Training | 55.65 | 4185.43 | 64.69 | 16.75 |
| Validation | 28.62 | 1102.25 | 33.20 | 9.35 | |
| Test | 43.43 | 2502.82 | 50.03 | 8.83 | |
| Holdout (6 features) | Training | 15.19 | 379.63 | 19.52 | 3.76 |
| Validation | 6.39 | 65.90 | 8.11 | 2.04 | |
| Test | 29.36 | 1296.17 | 36.01 | 6.22 | |
| Holdout (3 features) | Training | 8.48 | 129.55 | 11.38 | 2.64 |
| Validation | 5.91 | 61.62 | 7.85 | 1.53 | |
| Test | 24.62 | 939.42 | 30.65 | 5.17 | |
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