Table 2. CEFTA-2006 effects on wine...

Table 2.

CEFTA-2006 effects on wine export values: regression results

Variable	(1) Yotov All exp. (Baseline)	(2) Yotov + MKDAll exp. (Baseline)	(3) Simple FE All exp. (Robustness)	(4) MKD-only DiD (Robustness)
CEFTA (pair_treated)	0.250***(0.086)	0.145(0.100)	3.380***(0.125)	—
[% change]	[+28%*]	[+16%]	[+2,837%*]
CEFTA x North Macedonia	—	0.500***(0.149)	1.608***(0.199)	—
[% change]		[+65%*]	[+399%*]
Combined MKD (pair + int.)	—	0.645	4.988	—
[% change]		[+91%]	[+14,568%]
CEFTA (MKD-only DiD)	—	—	—	0.846***(0.272)
[% change]				[+133%*]
Log(GDP destination)	—	—	1.799***(0.156)	2.575***(0.934)
Exporter-Time FE	Yes	Yes	No	No
Importer-Time FE	Yes	Yes	No	No
Exp.-imp. Pair FE	Yes	Yes	No	No
Exporter FE	No	No	Yes	No
Importer FE	No	No	Yes	Yes
Year FE	No	No	Yes	Yes
SE cluster	Imp + Year	Imp + Year	Imp + Year	Importer
Observations	25,073	25,073	26,668	866
Pseudo-R²	0.992	0.992	0.919	0.885

Variable	(1) Yotov All exp. (Baseline)	(2) Yotov + MKDAll exp. (Baseline)	(3) Simple FE All exp. (Robustness)	(4) MKD-only DiD (Robustness)
CEFTA (pair_treated)	0.250***(0.086)	0.145(0.100)	3.380***(0.125)	—
[% change]	[+28%***]	[+16%]	[+2,837%***]
CEFTA x North Macedonia	—	0.500***(0.149)	1.608***(0.199)	—
[% change]		[+65%***]	[+399%***]
Combined MKD (pair + int.)	—	0.645	4.988	—
[% change]		[+91%]	[+14,568%]
CEFTA (MKD-only DiD)	—	—	—	0.846***(0.272)
[% change]				[+133%***]
Log(GDP destination)	—	—	1.799***(0.156)	2.575***(0.934)
Exporter-Time FE	Yes	Yes	No	No
Importer-Time FE	Yes	Yes	No	No
Exp.-imp. Pair FE	Yes	Yes	No	No
Exporter FE	No	No	Yes	No
Importer FE	No	No	Yes	Yes
Year FE	No	No	Yes	Yes
SE cluster	Imp + Year	Imp + Year	Imp + Year	Importer
Observations	25,073	25,073	26,668	866
Pseudo-R²	0.992	0.992	0.919	0.885

Note(s):

PPML estimator. Heteroskedasticity-robust SE. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. % change = 100x(exp(b_hat)-1). Models (1)–(2): Yotov et al. (2016) three-way FE, preferred baseline. Models (3)–(4): robustness/MKD-only spec

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