Addressing endogeneity using instrumental variables
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | F.MEAN OF HII | F.MEAN OF HII | F.RLI | F.RLI |
| Adaptation finance | −14.517*** | 2.695*** | ||
| (4.543) | (0.593) | |||
| Mitigation finance | −11.214*** | 2.127*** | ||
| (3.421) | (0.390) | |||
| Observations | 1,650 | 1,650 | 1,632 | 1,632 |
| Controls | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Region FE | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Year FE | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Country and year clustered | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Number of excluded IVs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| C-D F-stat | 158.039 | 117.222 | 161.085 | 114.367 |
| K-P F-stat | 50.936 | 30.871 | 52.466 | 29.808 |
| AR F-stat | 9.125 | 9.125 | 17.185 | 17.185 |
| p-value AR | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| p-value Endog | 0.153 | 0.518 | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Adj. R-square | 0.637 | 0.649 | 0.282 | 0.230 |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | F.MEAN OF HII | F.MEAN OF HII | F.RLI | F.RLI |
| Observations | 1,650 | 1,650 | 1,632 | 1,632 |
| Controls | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Region FE | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Year FE | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Country and year clustered | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Number of excluded IVs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| C-D F-stat | 158.039 | 117.222 | 161.085 | 114.367 |
| K-P F-stat | 50.936 | 30.871 | 52.466 | 29.808 |
| AR F-stat | 9.125 | 9.125 | 17.185 | 17.185 |
| 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| 0.153 | 0.518 | 0.002 | 0.000 | |
| Adj. R-square | 0.637 | 0.649 | 0.282 | 0.230 |
Note(s): Table 2A and Table 2B report two-stage least squares (IV-2SLS) regressions for MEAN OF HII and RLI at t+1. The one-year lead establishes temporal ordering and does not identify the biological adjustment period. MEAN OF HII denotes the logarithm of the mean Human Influence Index, and RLI denotes the logarithm of the Red List Index. Adaptation and mitigation finance are treated as endogenous variables and measure country-year climate adaptation and mitigation finance, respectively, defined in Section 3.2.2 and expressed in logarithmic form. Control variables are also in logarithms, with definitions provided in Section 3.1.3. The main specification uses the predetermined top-donor budget-competition instrument described in Section 3.2.3: for each recipient, the top donor is fixed from the 2002–2006 pre-period and the instrument is the predetermined donor's allocation share to other recipient countries, excluding the focal recipient's own climate-finance flow. Robustness checks using lagged instruments are reported separately in the Online Appendix. Robust standard errors clustered at the country and year levels are reported in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1
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