Construct comparison: synthetic readiness, promotion fragility and pipeline thinning
| Dimension | Synthetic readiness | Promotion fragility | Pipeline thinning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level of analysis | Individual (present state) | Organisational (mid-term) | Systemic (long-term) |
| Defining characteristic | Competent performance contingent on AI scaffolding; unable to explain process or detect AI errors | Mismatch between demonstrated and required capability at point of promotion | Progressive depletion of experienced senior practitioners across successive cohorts |
| Observable indicator | Performance drops when AI tool is unavailable or produces incorrect output | Increased failure rate or re-assignment in first 12 months of senior role | Declining depth of internal expertise available to fill senior vacancies |
| Temporal scale | Immediate – detectable during AI-augmented role | Short-to-medium – detectable within 1–3 years of promotion | Long-term – detectable across 5–10 year cohort progression |
| Adjacent construct | Automation bias (Parasuraman and Manzey, 2010) | Peter Principle (Peter and Hull, 1969) – extended to AI context | Knowledge drain; succession gap |
| Dimension | Synthetic readiness | Promotion fragility | Pipeline thinning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level of analysis | Individual (present state) | Organisational (mid-term) | Systemic (long-term) |
| Defining characteristic | Competent performance contingent on | Mismatch between demonstrated and required capability at point of promotion | Progressive depletion of experienced senior practitioners across successive cohorts |
| Observable indicator | Performance drops when | Increased failure rate or re-assignment in first 12 months of senior role | Declining depth of internal expertise available to fill senior vacancies |
| Temporal scale | Immediate – detectable during AI-augmented role | Short-to-medium – detectable within 1–3 years of promotion | Long-term – detectable across 5–10 year cohort progression |
| Adjacent construct | Automation bias ( | Peter Principle ( | Knowledge drain; succession gap |
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