Robustness of raw IMUGI under alternative crisis-definition thresholds and anticipation windows
| Threshold | Anticipation | AUC | Brier | Advance warning | Immediate capture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | (days) | Rate (%) | Rate (%) | ||
| 15 | 5 | 0.8598 | 0.1171 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 15 | 9 | 0.7488 | 0.1138 | 50.0 | 0.0 |
| 15 | 15 | 0.6885 | 0.1150 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 20 | 5 | 0.9170 | 0.1156 | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| 20 | 9 | 0.9055 | 0.1175 | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| 20 | 15 | 0.9142 | 0.1173 | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| 25 | 5 | 0.9174 | 0.1333 | 66.7 | 0.0 |
| 25 | 9 | 0.9064 | 0.1356 | 66.7 | 0.0 |
| 25 | 15 | 0.9140 | 0.1367 | 66.7 | 0.0 |
| Threshold | Anticipation | AUC | Brier | Advance warning | Immediate capture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (%) | (days) | Rate (%) | Rate (%) | ||
| 15 | 5 | 0.8598 | 0.1171 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 15 | 9 | 0.7488 | 0.1138 | 50.0 | 0.0 |
| 15 | 15 | 0.6885 | 0.1150 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 20 | 5 | 0.9170 | 0.1156 | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| 20 | 9 | 0.9055 | 0.1175 | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| 20 | 15 | 0.9142 | 0.1173 | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| 25 | 5 | 0.9174 | 0.1333 | 66.7 | 0.0 |
| 25 | 9 | 0.9064 | 0.1356 | 66.7 | 0.0 |
| 25 | 15 | 0.9140 | 0.1367 | 66.7 | 0.0 |
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