Table 10

Alternative export-performance outcomes under temporal validation

OutcomeObserved NCountriesPeriodBest modelR-squaredRMSE
Aggregate value — log merchandise exports1,962541988–2024Extra Trees0.9260.507
Extensive margin — export partners–––Not estimated––
Extensive margin — exported HS6 products1,185491990–2023Extra Trees0.891334.676
Intensive margin — log exports per partner–––Not estimated––
Intensive margin — log exports per HS6 product1,185491990–2023Extra Trees0.8240.629

Note(s): Partner-based breadth and depth outcomes did not meet usable coverage and were not filled by imputation

Source(s): Computations from the study dataset (2026)

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