Alternative export-performance outcomes under temporal validation
| Outcome | Observed N | Countries | Period | Best model | R-squared | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregate value — log merchandise exports | 1,962 | 54 | 1988–2024 | Extra Trees | 0.926 | 0.507 |
| Extensive margin — export partners | – | – | – | Not estimated | – | – |
| Extensive margin — exported HS6 products | 1,185 | 49 | 1990–2023 | Extra Trees | 0.891 | 334.676 |
| Intensive margin — log exports per partner | – | – | – | Not estimated | – | – |
| Intensive margin — log exports per HS6 product | 1,185 | 49 | 1990–2023 | Extra Trees | 0.824 | 0.629 |
| Outcome | Observed N | Countries | Period | Best model | RMSE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregate value — log merchandise exports | 1,962 | 54 | 1988–2024 | Extra Trees | 0.926 | 0.507 |
| Extensive margin — export partners | – | – | – | Not estimated | – | – |
| Extensive margin — exported HS6 products | 1,185 | 49 | 1990–2023 | Extra Trees | 0.891 | 334.676 |
| Intensive margin — log exports per partner | – | – | – | Not estimated | – | – |
| Intensive margin — log exports per HS6 product | 1,185 | 49 | 1990–2023 | Extra Trees | 0.824 | 0.629 |
Note(s): Partner-based breadth and depth outcomes did not meet usable coverage and were not filled by imputation
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