Table 6

Comparative performance of alternative tax design models under information scarcity

ModelUses network structureMean absolute error (MAE)Post-tax GiniKakwani indexWelfare loss under high ambiguity (δ = 0.20)
Linear proxy-based ruleNo0.2110.3720.1014.6%
XGBoost (tabular ML benchmark)No0.1760.3510.1392.9%
GNN-based structural taxation (proposed)Yes0.1270.3080.2211.2%

Note(s): The table compares redistributive and informational performance across three tax design approaches. The linear proxy-based rule reflects conventional targeting mechanisms based on observable characteristics. The XGBoost benchmark uses the same observable attributes as the proposed model but excludes relational information, thereby serving as a strong non-graph machine learning baseline. The GNN-based model incorporates economic network structure through graph embeddings. Welfare losses are computed under distributional ambiguity using worst-case income realizations consistent with inferred information sets. Results are averaged across 1,000 simulation replications. Lower MAE, lower post-tax Gini coefficients, higher Kakwani indices and smaller welfare losses indicate superior performance

Source(s): Author's simulations based on synthetic data calibrated to household survey and administrative records

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