Table I “Ideal type” scenarios on the... | Emerald Publishing

Table I

“Ideal type” scenarios on the future of work

	The “this time is different” scenario	The “this time is no different” scenario	The conservative scenario
Employment prediction	Permanent technological unemployment	No employment effect; temporary technological unemployment	More precarious labor market; temporary or permanent technological unemployment
Suggested policies	Unconventional policies: basic income, guaranteed jobs programs, increasing employee ownership, work sharing	Conventional policies: education reforms, stimulating labor supply	Flexible policies: decreasing means- and income testing gradually; streamlining social security
Analytical background	Occupation-based automation risk (Frey and Osborne, 2013/2017), exponential development (Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2014); capital-intensive production (Ford, 2015), disruptive digital platforms (Stern, 2016)	Tasks-based automation risk (Arntz et al., 2016), historical evidence (Miller and Atkinson, 2013), capitalization effect (Pissarides, 2000), augmentation (Autor, 2015)	Implementation lags (Brynjolfsson et al., 2017), technological opportunities (Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2014), resilience of low-educated workers (Arntz et al., 2016), historical evidence (Allen, 2017)

	The “this time is different” scenario	The “this time is no different” scenario	The conservative scenario
Employment prediction	Permanent technological unemployment	No employment effect; temporary technological unemployment	More precarious labor market; temporary or permanent technological unemployment
Suggested policies	Unconventional policies: basic income, guaranteed jobs programs, increasing employee ownership, work sharing	Conventional policies: education reforms, stimulating labor supply	Flexible policies: decreasing means- and income testing gradually; streamlining social security
Analytical background	Occupation-based automation risk (Frey and Osborne, 2013/2017), exponential development (Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2014); capital-intensive production (Ford, 2015), disruptive digital platforms (Stern, 2016)	Tasks-based automation risk (Arntz et al., 2016), historical evidence (Miller and Atkinson, 2013), capitalization effect (Pissarides, 2000), augmentation (Autor, 2015)	Implementation lags (Brynjolfsson et al., 2017), technological opportunities (Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2014), resilience of low-educated workers (Arntz et al., 2016), historical evidence (Allen, 2017)