Documentation of the DRBV model
| Variable | Typology of variable | Equation, initial value* |
|---|---|---|
| Average maturity rate | Auxiliary | = (0.24*1 + 0.41*3 + 0.35*7) |
| Bank loans + bonds + hedging | Flow | = Function yields to bonds (yields) + if then else (cash flow from operations*0.1 < maturity, maturity − cash flow from operations*0.1, 0) |
| Cash flow from operations | Flow | = [Coal extraction process*(19,797/39) − coal mining assets*(14,553/1,372)] + [“oil/gas extraction process”*(1) − “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves”*(7,881/14,057)] + (sales of refined products*[(69,766 + 40,091)/119,584] − “refineries/chemical) plants”*[(61,583 + 39,503)/119,584)] + [sales of energy*(69,773/64,526) − power plants*(55,692/64,526)] |
| Coal extraction process | Flow | = Coal mining assets*mining productivity |
| Coal mining assets | Stock | = INTEG (mine development − coal extraction process, 1,372) |
| Debt | Stock | = INTEG (“bank loans + bonds + hedging” − maturity, 210,627) |
| Depreciation pp | Flow | = pp/10 |
| Depreciation refineries/chemical plants (r/cp) | Flow | = “Refineries/chemical plants”/10 |
| Dividends | Flow | = 8,727 |
| Employment and job enhancement | Auxiliary | = {Coal mining assets*[31,270/(coal mining assets + “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves” + pp + “refineries/chemical plants”)] + “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves”*[31,270/(coal mining assets + “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves” + pp + “refineries/chemical plants”)] + pp*[31,270/(coal mining assets + “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves “pp + “refineries/chemical plants”)] + “refineries/chemical plants”*[31,270/(coal mining assets + “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves” + pp + “refineries/chemical plants”)]}*(1/technological upgrade) |
| Environmental and social impacts | Auxiliary | = “Technologies, ICT and intellectual property”/1 − “pollution (gas flared, particles, water usage, land usage)”/2 |
| Equity financing | Stock | = INTEG (new equity emission and 228,608) |
| Equity funding | Flow | = New equity emission |
| Exploration | Flow | = Investments*0.04 |
| Extraction productivity | Auxiliary | = (4,197/14,057)*“maintenance and development activities”*technological upgrade |
| Financial capital | Stock | = INTEG (cash flow from operations + equity funding-dividends-investments-net financing needs and 439,235) |
| Function debt to yields | Auxiliary | = {[(0,0) − (200,000,0.2)], (0,0.01), (30,000,0.02), (60,000,0.03), (90,000,0.04), (120,000,0.05), (150,000,0.06), (180,000,0.07), (200,000,0.08)} |
| Function yields to bonds | Auxiliary | = {[(0,0) − (0.15,40,000)], (0,0), (0.01,10,000), (0.02,12,000), (0.03,14,000), (0.04,18,000), (0.05,23,000), (0.07,25,000), (0.09,27,000), (0.11,30,000), (0.13,31,000), (0.15,31,500)} |
| Hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves | Stock | = INTEG (exploration − “oil/gas extraction process,” 14,217) |
| Interests | Auxiliary | = Debt*yields |
| Investment in refineries/chemical plants | Flow | = Investments*0.5 |
| Investments | Flow | = 9,163 + 55,891 |
| Maintenance and development activities | Auxiliary | = (Investments*0.15)/9,163 |
| Maturity | Flow | = MIN (cash flow from operations*0.1, debt/average maturity rate) |
| Mine development | Auxiliary | = Investments*0.2 |
| Mining productivity | Auxiliary | = 0.028*“maintenance and development activities”*technological upgrade |
| Net financing needs | Flow | = Interests + maturity − “bank loans + bonds + hedging” |
| New equity emission | Flow | = Equity financing*(share price appreciation/100) |
| New pp | Flow | = Investments*0.1 |
| Oil/gas extraction process | Flow | = “Hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves”*extraction productivity |
| Pollution (gas flared, particles, water usage and land usage) function | Auxiliary | = {[(0,0) − (10,70,000)], (1,67,632), (2,67,412)} |
| Pollution (gas flared, particles, water usage and land usage) | Auxiliary | = “Pollution (gas flared, particles, water usage and land usage) function” [(coal mining assets + “refineries/chemical plants” + pp)]*(1/technological upgrade) |
| pp | Stock | = INTEG (new pp-depreciation pp and 64,526) |
| Power productivity | Auxiliary | = 1*“maintenance and development activities” |
| Refineries/chemical plants | Stock | = INTEG (“investment in refineries/chemical plants” − “depreciation r/cp” and119,584) |
| Refinery productivity | Auxiliary | = 1*technological upgrade*“maintenance and development activities” |
| R&D expenditures | Flow | = (Investments*0.02)/6.93 |
| Sales of energy | Auxiliary | = pp*power productivity |
| Sales of refined products | Auxiliary | = “Refineries/chemical plants”*refinery productivity |
| Share price appreciation | Auxiliary | = RAMP[(dividends/14,000), 1, 20]*stock market variations |
| Stock market variations | Auxiliary | = RANDOM NORMAL(0.8, 1.2, 1, 0.1, 3) |
| Technological upgrade | Auxiliary | = 1 + (R&D expenditures/“technologies, ICT and intellectual property”) |
| Technologies, ICT and intellectual property | Stock | = INTEG (R&D expenditures and 2,409) |
| Yields | Auxiliary | = Function debt to yields(debt) |
| Variable | Typology of variable | Equation, initial value* |
|---|---|---|
| Average maturity rate | Auxiliary | = (0.24*1 + 0.41*3 + 0.35*7) |
| Bank loans + bonds + hedging | Flow | = Function yields to bonds (yields) + if then else (cash flow from operations*0.1 < maturity, maturity − cash flow from operations*0.1, 0) |
| Cash flow from operations | Flow | = [Coal extraction process*(19,797/39) − coal mining assets*(14,553/1,372)] + [“oil/gas extraction process”*(1) − “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves”*(7,881/14,057)] + (sales of refined products*[(69,766 + 40,091)/119,584] − “refineries/chemical) plants”*[(61,583 + 39,503)/119,584)] + [sales of energy*(69,773/64,526) − power plants*(55,692/64,526)] |
| Coal extraction process | Flow | = Coal mining assets*mining productivity |
| Coal mining assets | Stock | = INTEG (mine development − coal extraction process, 1,372) |
| Debt | Stock | = INTEG (“bank loans + bonds + hedging” − maturity, 210,627) |
| Depreciation pp | Flow | = pp/10 |
| Depreciation refineries/chemical plants (r/cp) | Flow | = “Refineries/chemical plants”/10 |
| Dividends | Flow | = 8,727 |
| Employment and job enhancement | Auxiliary | = {Coal mining assets*[31,270/(coal mining assets + “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves” + pp + “refineries/chemical plants”)] + “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves”*[31,270/(coal mining assets + “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves” + pp + “refineries/chemical plants”)] + pp*[31,270/(coal mining assets + “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves “pp + “refineries/chemical plants”)] + “refineries/chemical plants”*[31,270/(coal mining assets + “hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves” + pp + “refineries/chemical plants”)]}*(1/technological upgrade) |
| Environmental and social impacts | Auxiliary | = “Technologies, ICT and intellectual property”/1 − “pollution (gas flared, particles, water usage, land usage)”/2 |
| Equity financing | Stock | = INTEG (new equity emission and 228,608) |
| Equity funding | Flow | = New equity emission |
| Exploration | Flow | = Investments*0.04 |
| Extraction productivity | Auxiliary | = (4,197/14,057)*“maintenance and development activities”*technological upgrade |
| Financial capital | Stock | = INTEG (cash flow from operations + equity funding-dividends-investments-net financing needs and 439,235) |
| Function debt to yields | Auxiliary | = {[(0,0) − (200,000,0.2)], (0,0.01), (30,000,0.02), (60,000,0.03), (90,000,0.04), (120,000,0.05), (150,000,0.06), (180,000,0.07), (200,000,0.08)} |
| Function yields to bonds | Auxiliary | = {[(0,0) − (0.15,40,000)], (0,0), (0.01,10,000), (0.02,12,000), (0.03,14,000), (0.04,18,000), (0.05,23,000), (0.07,25,000), (0.09,27,000), (0.11,30,000), (0.13,31,000), (0.15,31,500)} |
| Hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves | Stock | = INTEG (exploration − “oil/gas extraction process,” 14,217) |
| Interests | Auxiliary | = Debt*yields |
| Investment in refineries/chemical plants | Flow | = Investments*0.5 |
| Investments | Flow | = 9,163 + 55,891 |
| Maintenance and development activities | Auxiliary | = (Investments*0.15)/9,163 |
| Maturity | Flow | = MIN (cash flow from operations*0.1, debt/average maturity rate) |
| Mine development | Auxiliary | = Investments*0.2 |
| Mining productivity | Auxiliary | = 0.028*“maintenance and development activities”*technological upgrade |
| Net financing needs | Flow | = Interests + maturity − “bank loans + bonds + hedging” |
| New equity emission | Flow | = Equity financing*(share price appreciation/100) |
| New pp | Flow | = Investments*0.1 |
| Oil/gas extraction process | Flow | = “Hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves”*extraction productivity |
| Pollution (gas flared, particles, water usage and land usage) function | Auxiliary | = {[(0,0) − (10,70,000)], (1,67,632), (2,67,412)} |
| Pollution (gas flared, particles, water usage and land usage) | Auxiliary | = “Pollution (gas flared, particles, water usage and land usage) function” [(coal mining assets + “refineries/chemical plants” + pp)]*(1/technological upgrade) |
| pp | Stock | = INTEG (new pp-depreciation pp and 64,526) |
| Power productivity | Auxiliary | = 1*“maintenance and development activities” |
| Refineries/chemical plants | Stock | = INTEG (“investment in refineries/chemical plants” − “depreciation r/cp” and119,584) |
| Refinery productivity | Auxiliary | = 1*technological upgrade*“maintenance and development activities” |
| R&D expenditures | Flow | = (Investments*0.02)/6.93 |
| Sales of energy | Auxiliary | = pp*power productivity |
| Sales of refined products | Auxiliary | = “Refineries/chemical plants”*refinery productivity |
| Share price appreciation | Auxiliary | = RAMP[(dividends/14,000), 1, 20]*stock market variations |
| Stock market variations | Auxiliary | = RANDOM NORMAL(0.8, 1.2, 1, 0.1, 3) |
| Technological upgrade | Auxiliary | = 1 + (R&D expenditures/“technologies, ICT and intellectual property”) |
| Technologies, ICT and intellectual property | Stock | = INTEG (R&D expenditures and 2,409) |
| Yields | Auxiliary | = Function debt to yields(debt) |
Notes:
*The third column of this table shows the equations used to calculate all the variables and, if present, their initial value. Initial values represent the financial BLI retrieved from the organization’s 2018 IR and annual financial statement