Table 2 Worse scenario: the delay in...

Table 2

Worse scenario: the delay in vaccination programme allows the economic measures to contain the spread of the virus in 2021 to last longer than assumed in the baseline, up to the end of the third quarter of 2021

Worse case vaccination delayed increases containment costs In 2021	Actual				Forecast
	Chain-linked values €bill base year 2015 (BankItalia)	Change% vs Last month (LM)	Change % vs Last year (LY)	Indexed values values 2019 – 1 = 100	Change % vs Last year (LY)	Indexed values values 2019 – 1 = 100	GDP annual Forecast (FCST) €bill (IMF)	Change % vs Last year (LY)
2018 – 1	429.764
2018 – 2	430.276	0.1
2018 – 3	430.064	0.0
2018 – 4	430.426	0.1
2018 Total	1,720.53
2019 – 1	431.251	0.2	0.3	100.0
2019 – 2	432.106	0.2	0.4	100.2
2019 – 3	432.287	0.0	0.5	100.2
2019 – 4	430.725	–0.4	0.1	99.9
2019 Total	1,726.369	0.3		400.3
2020 – 1	406.907	–5.5	–5.6	94.4
2020 – 2	353.832	–13.0	–18.1	82.0
2020 – 3	410.326	16.0	–5.1	95.1
2020 – 4	402.220	–2.0	–6.6	93.3
2020 Total	1,573.285	–8.9		364.8
2021 – 1					–5.0	89.6	386.6
2021 – 2					–5.0	77.9	336.1
2021 – 3					–5.0	90.4	389.8
2021 – 4					2.4	95.5	411.9
2021 Total						353.5	1,524.4	–3.1
2022 – 1					2.8	92.1	397.4
2022 – 2					3.2	80.4	346.9
2022 – 3					3.6	93.6	403.8
2022 – 4					3.6	98.9	426.7
2022 Total						365.2	1,574.8	3.3

Worse case vaccinationdelayed increasescontainment costs In 2021	Actual				Forecast
	Chain-linked values€bill base year2015 (BankItalia)	Change% vsLast month (LM)	Change % vsLast year (LY)	Indexed values values2019 – 1 = 100	Change % vsLast year (LY)	Indexedvalues values2019 – 1 = 100	GDP annualForecast (FCST)€bill (IMF)	Change % vsLast year (LY)
2018 – 1	429.764
2018 – 2	430.276	0.1
2018 – 3	430.064	0.0
2018 – 4	430.426	0.1
2018 Total	1,720.53
2019 – 1	431.251	0.2	0.3	100.0
2019 – 2	432.106	0.2	0.4	100.2
2019 – 3	432.287	0.0	0.5	100.2
2019 – 4	430.725	–0.4	0.1	99.9
2019 Total	1,726.369	0.3		400.3
2020 – 1	406.907	–5.5	–5.6	94.4
2020 – 2	353.832	–13.0	–18.1	82.0
2020 – 3	410.326	16.0	–5.1	95.1
2020 – 4	402.220	–2.0	–6.6	93.3
2020 Total	1,573.285	–8.9		364.8
2021 – 1					–5.0	89.6	386.6
2021 – 2					–5.0	77.9	336.1
2021 – 3					–5.0	90.4	389.8
2021 – 4					2.4	95.5	411.9
2021 Total						353.5	1,524.4	–3.1
2022 – 1					2.8	92.1	397.4
2022 – 2					3.2	80.4	346.9
2022 – 3					3.6	93.6	403.8
2022 – 4					3.6	98.9	426.7
2022 Total						365.2	1,574.8	3.3

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