Table 4 Best scenario: impact on...

Table 4

Best scenario: impact on expected Italian GDP growth of the anticipated attainment 70% coverage of the target Italian population to the end of the second quarter of 2021

Best case vaccination anticipated by 1Q	Actual				Forecast
Best case vaccination anticipated by 1Q	Chain-linked values €bill base year 2015 (BankItalia)	Change % vs Last month (LM)	Change % vs Last year (LY)	Indexed values values 2019 – 1 = 100	Change % vs Last year (LY)	Indexed values values 2019 – 1 = 100	GDP annual Forecast (FCST) €bill (IMF)	Change % vs Last year (LY)
2018 – 1	429.764
2018 – 2	430.276	0.1
2018 – 3	430.064	0.0
2018 – 4	430.426	0.1
2018 Total	1,720.53
2019 – 1	431.251	0.2	0.3	100.0
2019 – 2	432.106	0.2	0.4	100.2
2019 – 3	432.287	0.0	0.5	100.2
2019 – 4	430.725	–0.4	0.1	99.9
2019 Total	1,726.369	0.3		400.3
2020 – 1	406.907	–5.5	–5.6	94.4
2020 – 2	353.832	–13.0	–18.1	82.0
2020 – 3	410.326	16.0	–5.1	95.1
2020 – 4	402.220	–2.0	–6.6	93.3
2020 Total	1,573.285	–8.9		364.8
2021 – 1					2.8	97.0	418.3
2021 – 2					3.2	84.7	365.2
2021 – 3					3.6	98.6	425.1
2021 – 4					3.6	96.6	416.7
2021 Total						376.9	1,625.3	3.3
2022 – 1					3.6	100.5	433.4
2022 – 2					3.6	87.7	378.3
2022 – 3					3.6	102.1	440.4
2022 – 4					3.6	100.1	431.7
2022 Total						390.4	1,683.8	3.6

Best case vaccinationanticipated by 1Q	Actual				Forecast
Best case vaccinationanticipated by 1Q	Chain-linked values€bill base year2015 (BankItalia)	Change % vsLast month (LM)	Change % vsLast year (LY)	Indexedvalues values2019 – 1 = 100	Change % vsLast year (LY)	Indexedvalues values2019 – 1 = 100	GDP annualForecast (FCST)€bill (IMF)	Change % vsLast year (LY)
2018 – 1	429.764
2018 – 2	430.276	0.1
2018 – 3	430.064	0.0
2018 – 4	430.426	0.1
2018 Total	1,720.53
2019 – 1	431.251	0.2	0.3	100.0
2019 – 2	432.106	0.2	0.4	100.2
2019 – 3	432.287	0.0	0.5	100.2
2019 – 4	430.725	–0.4	0.1	99.9
2019 Total	1,726.369	0.3		400.3
2020 – 1	406.907	–5.5	–5.6	94.4
2020 – 2	353.832	–13.0	–18.1	82.0
2020 – 3	410.326	16.0	–5.1	95.1
2020 – 4	402.220	–2.0	–6.6	93.3
2020 Total	1,573.285	–8.9		364.8
2021 – 1					2.8	97.0	418.3
2021 – 2					3.2	84.7	365.2
2021 – 3					3.6	98.6	425.1
2021 – 4					3.6	96.6	416.7
2021 Total						376.9	1,625.3	3.3
2022 – 1					3.6	100.5	433.4
2022 – 2					3.6	87.7	378.3
2022 – 3					3.6	102.1	440.4
2022 – 4					3.6	100.1	431.7
2022 Total						390.4	1,683.8	3.6

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