Summary of economic impact: the enormity of potential GDP losses indicates that the national vaccination plan against COVID-19 represents the single most significant risk for the recovery of the Italian economy
| Scenario impact | 2021 Forecast (FCST) €billion | Absolute value change vs base case €bill | % Change vs base case | 2022 FCST €billion | Absolute value change vs base case €bill | % Change vs Base case | 2021 –2022 Impact | Absolute value change vs BASE case €bill | % Change vs base case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 1,620.6 | 1,678.9 | 3,299.5 | ||||||
| Worst case vaccination delay | 1,524.4 | –96.2 | –5.9 | 1,574.8 | –104.1 | –6.2 | 3,099.2 | –200.3 | –6.1 |
| Worst case delay plus new outbreak | 1,489.3 | –131.3 | –8.10 | 1,538.6 | –140.3 | –8.36 | 3,027.8 | –271.7 | –8.2 |
| Best case | 1,625.3 | 4.7 | 0.29 | 1,683.8 | 4.9 | 0.29 | 3,309.0 | 9.5 | 0.3 |
| Scenario impact | 2021 | Absolute value | % Change vs | 2022 FCST | Absolute value | % Change vs | 2021 –2022 | Absolute value | % Change vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 1,620.6 | 1,678.9 | 3,299.5 | ||||||
| Worst case vaccination delay | 1,524.4 | –96.2 | –5.9 | 1,574.8 | –104.1 | –6.2 | 3,099.2 | –200.3 | –6.1 |
| Worst case delay plus new outbreak | 1,489.3 | –131.3 | –8.10 | 1,538.6 | –140.3 | –8.36 | 3,027.8 | –271.7 | –8.2 |
| Best case | 1,625.3 | 4.7 | 0.29 | 1,683.8 | 4.9 | 0.29 | 3,309.0 | 9.5 | 0.3 |
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