Regime classification based on smoothed probabilities
| Regime 0 | Quarters | Average probability |
| 2000(2) – 2000(2) | 1 | 1.000 |
| 2002(2) – 2002(3) | 2 | 0.996 |
| 2003(2) – 2019(2) | 65 | 0.997 |
| Total: 68 quarters (80.00%) with an average duration of 22.67 quarters | ||
| Regime 1 | Quarters | Average probability |
| 1998(2) – 2000(1) | 8 | 1.000 |
| 2000(3) – 2002(1) | 7 | 0.977 |
| 2002(4) – 2003(1) | 2 | 1.000 |
| Total: 17 quarters (20.00%) with an average duration of 5.67 quarters | ||
| Regime 0 | Quarters | Average probability |
| 2000(2) – 2000(2) | 1 | 1.000 |
| 2002(2) – 2002(3) | 2 | 0.996 |
| 2003(2) – 2019(2) | 65 | 0.997 |
| Total: 68 quarters (80.00%) with an average duration of 22.67 quarters | ||
| Regime 1 | Quarters | Average probability |
| 1998(2) – 2000(1) | 8 | 1.000 |
| 2000(3) – 2002(1) | 7 | 0.977 |
| 2002(4) – 2003(1) | 2 | 1.000 |
| Total: 17 quarters (20.00%) with an average duration of 5.67 quarters | ||