Projected numbers of population by dental caries status (millions)
| Outcomes | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | % change 2020–2040 | % change to base-case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total population (15 years and older) | 50.40 | 53.36 | 54.10 | 52.60 | 4.4 | – |
| Base-case | ||||||
| Very low DMFT | 9.44 (19.35–19.53) | 17.70 (15.56–17.83) | 15.63 (15.46–15.79) | 13.39 (13.22–13.56) | −31.1 | – |
| Low DMFT | 10.03 (9.94–10.12) | 10.99 (10.87–11.11) | 10.77 (10.64–10.90) | 9.81 (9.68–9.94) | −2.2 | – |
| Moderate DMFT | 8.41 (8.34–8.48) | 9.57 (9.47–9.67) | 10.13 (10.02–10.24) | 9.89 (9.78–10.00) | 17.6 | – |
| High DMFT | 12.52 (12.47–12.57) | 15.1 (15.01–15.21) | 17.57 (17.41–17.72) | 19.50 (19.30–19.70) | 55.8 | – |
| Health Promotion Program | ||||||
| Very low DMFT | 19.44 (19.35–19.53) | 17.35 (17.21–17.50) | 15.79 (15.63–15.95) | 13.65 (13.48–13.82) | −29.8 | 1.9* |
| Low DMFT | 10.03 (9.94–10.12) | 10.99 (10.87–11.12) | 10.74 (10.61–10.87) | 9.78 (9.65–9.91) | −2.5 | −0.3* |
| Moderate DMFT | 8.41 (8.34–8.48) | 9.56 (9.46–9.65) | 10.12 (10.00–10.23) | 9.87 (9.76–9.98) | 17.4 | −0.2* |
| High DMFT | 12.52 (12.47–12.57) | 15.05 (14.95–15.16) | 17.45 (17.30–17.61) | 19.29 (19.09–19.49) | 54.1 | −1.1* |
| Dental personnel Intake and affordability | ||||||
| Very low DMFT | 19.44 (19.35–19.53) | 17.70 (17.56–17.83) | 15.63 (15.47–15.79) | 13.40 (13.23–13.57) | −31.1 | 0.1* |
| Low DMFT | 10.03 (9.94–10.12) | 10.99 (10.87–11.11) | 10.77 (10.64–10.90) | 9.81 (9.68–9.94) | −2.2 | 0 |
| Moderate DMFT | 8.41 (8.34–8.48) | 9.57 (9.47–9.67) | 10.13 (10.02–10.24) | 9.89 (9.78–10.01) | 17.6 | 0 |
| High DMFT | 12.52 (12.47–12.57) | 15.11 (15.01–15.21) | 17.57 (17.41–17.73) | 19.49 (19.29–19.70) | 55.7 | −0.1* |
| Combined scenario | ||||||
| Very low DMFT | 19.44 (19.35–19.53) | 17.77 (17.63–17.90) | 15.99 (15.83–16.16) | 14.09 (13.92–14.26) | −27.5 | 5.2* |
| Low DMFT | 10.03 (9.94–10.12) | 10.99 (10.87–11.12) | 10.76 (10.63–10.89) | 9.89 (9.76–10.02) | −1.4 | 0.8* |
| Moderate DMFT | 8.41 (8.34–8.48) | 9.56 (9.46–9.65) | 10.10 (99.84–10.20) | 9.85 (9.74–9.96) | 17.1 | −0.4* |
| High DMFT | 12.52 (12.47–12.57) | 15.05 (14.95–15.15) | 17.25 (17.09–17.40) | 18.77 (18.57–18.96) | 49.9 | −3.7* |
| Outcomes | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | % change 2020–2040 | % change to base-case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total population (15 years and older) | 50.40 | 53.36 | 54.10 | 52.60 | 4.4 | – |
| Very low DMFT | 9.44 (19.35–19.53) | 17.70 (15.56–17.83) | 15.63 (15.46–15.79) | 13.39 (13.22–13.56) | −31.1 | – |
| Low DMFT | 10.03 (9.94–10.12) | 10.99 (10.87–11.11) | 10.77 (10.64–10.90) | 9.81 (9.68–9.94) | −2.2 | – |
| Moderate DMFT | 8.41 (8.34–8.48) | 9.57 (9.47–9.67) | 10.13 (10.02–10.24) | 9.89 (9.78–10.00) | 17.6 | – |
| High DMFT | 12.52 (12.47–12.57) | 15.1 (15.01–15.21) | 17.57 (17.41–17.72) | 19.50 (19.30–19.70) | 55.8 | – |
| Very low DMFT | 19.44 (19.35–19.53) | 17.35 (17.21–17.50) | 15.79 (15.63–15.95) | 13.65 (13.48–13.82) | −29.8 | 1.9* |
| Low DMFT | 10.03 (9.94–10.12) | 10.99 (10.87–11.12) | 10.74 (10.61–10.87) | 9.78 (9.65–9.91) | −2.5 | −0.3* |
| Moderate DMFT | 8.41 (8.34–8.48) | 9.56 (9.46–9.65) | 10.12 (10.00–10.23) | 9.87 (9.76–9.98) | 17.4 | −0.2* |
| High DMFT | 12.52 (12.47–12.57) | 15.05 (14.95–15.16) | 17.45 (17.30–17.61) | 19.29 (19.09–19.49) | 54.1 | −1.1* |
| Very low DMFT | 19.44 (19.35–19.53) | 17.70 (17.56–17.83) | 15.63 (15.47–15.79) | 13.40 (13.23–13.57) | −31.1 | 0.1* |
| Low DMFT | 10.03 (9.94–10.12) | 10.99 (10.87–11.11) | 10.77 (10.64–10.90) | 9.81 (9.68–9.94) | −2.2 | 0 |
| Moderate DMFT | 8.41 (8.34–8.48) | 9.57 (9.47–9.67) | 10.13 (10.02–10.24) | 9.89 (9.78–10.01) | 17.6 | 0 |
| High DMFT | 12.52 (12.47–12.57) | 15.11 (15.01–15.21) | 17.57 (17.41–17.73) | 19.49 (19.29–19.70) | 55.7 | −0.1* |
| Very low DMFT | 19.44 (19.35–19.53) | 17.77 (17.63–17.90) | 15.99 (15.83–16.16) | 14.09 (13.92–14.26) | −27.5 | 5.2* |
| Low DMFT | 10.03 (9.94–10.12) | 10.99 (10.87–11.12) | 10.76 (10.63–10.89) | 9.89 (9.76–10.02) | −1.4 | 0.8* |
| Moderate DMFT | 8.41 (8.34–8.48) | 9.56 (9.46–9.65) | 10.10 (99.84–10.20) | 9.85 (9.74–9.96) | 17.1 | −0.4* |
| High DMFT | 12.52 (12.47–12.57) | 15.05 (14.95–15.15) | 17.25 (17.09–17.40) | 18.77 (18.57–18.96) | 49.9 | −3.7* |
Notes: Numbers in parentheses refer to a 95% confidence level from the sensitivity analysis for each scenario. *Significant differences
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