Future markets and destinations
| Issue/topic | Comment on forecast | Success of forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Size and structure of population | ||
| Most tourism trips will continue to originate from North America and Western Europe | In 2019, almost 41m overseas trips were made to the UK, with the USA accounting for 5.4m of these trips and Europe for 27.3m. Source: Office for National Statistics (2020a) | Yes |
| By 2000, the population in the UK will increase by 10m, and by 50m and in the USA. | In 1973, the UK population was 56.2m, and by 2000, it was 58.9m; it did not increase by 10m until 2018 (66.4 m). In 1973, the USA population was 215m; in 2000, it was 282m (an increase of 57 m). Their population projections were underestimated. Source: Office for National Statistics (2020b), Worldometer (2020) | Partially correct |
| In the UK, by the early 1980s the number of over 60s will increase to almost 20% of the population | In 1971, the over 60s accounted for 19.9% of the UK population, while in 1981, the figure was 20.3%. Source: Dorling and Rees (2003) | Yes |
| In the 1970s, the number of married working women in the UK will continue to increase | Reflecting changes in data collection methods, this type of data is no longer available. However, the proportion of women aged 16-64 in the UK workforce increased from 53% in 1970 to 56% in 1980 and 72% in 2020. The change did not occur in the 1970s but some four decades later. Source: Office for National Statistics (2020c) | Partially correct |
| Incomes and leisure | ||
| Holiday entitlement in the UK will increase from the current 3 weeks | In 2020, the statutory minimum holiday entitlement in the UK is 4 weeks or 5 weeks including public holidays. In practice, 6 weeks (including public holidays) is the norm. Source: Innews (2020) | Yes |
| Car ownership | ||
| Private cars will remain the most common mode of holiday transport. Controlled access through advance reservation and pricing systems for vulnerable attractions, such as the Lake District, could become common | The car remains the most common form of holiday transport for the UK, accounting for 82% of all holiday trips, but for overseas tourists, public transport dominates. While during normal periods, there are no restrictions on travel to areas such as the lake district, this concern about capacity was insightful. Sources: GBTS (2016), Office for National Statistics (2020a) | Partially correct |
| If a channel tunnel is built, it will be seen as an extra ferry service, not as a new mode of transport. French visitors to London would increase | In 2019, French tourists' methods for accessing the UK were as follows: 1.23m by air, 0.44m by sea and 1.62m via the Channel tunnel. London accounted for some 1.8m (52%) of all French visitors, but over the decade from 2009 to 2019, numbers declined. The suggestion that the tunnel would be seen as an extra ferry service is open to question. They also failed to anticipate the development of low-cost airlines with direct flights to/from UK/French secondary cities. Source: Office for National Statistics (2020a) | No |
| Propensity for holidays | ||
| The propensity of the UK population to take a holiday will not increase over 60%, but the frequency will increase | In 2018, some 85% of the UK population took a holiday. The data suggests that much of this increase was driven by the increase in short breaks; this growth was unforeseen by the authors. Source: GBTS (2019) | Partially correct |
| International tourists will increase from 169m in 1979 to 250–280m by 1980 | In 1980, there were 278m international tourists, and this increased to 1,400m in 2018. Source: Office for National Statistics (2020a) | Yes |
| New generators of tourism | ||
| Japan's outbound market will grow, and this will have a significant impact on international tourism across the world | Outbound tourist from Japan did increase from 2.3m in 1973 to 4.0m in 1980 and 21.1m in 2019. However, the real growth in Japanese outbound tourism did not occur until the 1990s. In the UK, Japanese tourists declined from 556,000 in 2000 to 390,000 in 2018. The forecast was sound, despite it occurring later than suggested. Source: JTB Tourism Research (2020) | Partially correct |
| The Black population of the USA will enjoy 10 years of rising income in the 1970s but may look to travel to their ethnic origins in Africa | Given that household income is a key driver of holidays, in 2018, the mean white household income in the USA was $90k, but it was $59k for Black households. This suggests that Black Americans are less likely to take holidays. In addition, they are also reluctant to travel to Africa because they think they will not be welcome there. Sources: USA Census Bureau (2018), Insidermonkey (2018) | No |
| The Eastern European market will grow, but this may just result from a shift from Russia to the Mediterranean, rather than an increase in their overall travel | The growth in outbound tourism from Eastern Europe was not driven by a shift in markets but rather by their independence from Russia, along with their subsequent membership of the EU, which provided visa-free travel to the EU. The authors failed to foresee changes to political structures. Source: UNWTO (2019) | No |
| Immigration | ||
| New migrants, if they work in tourism, will start at the bottom of the economic ladder | In the UK, legal migrants account for between 23% and 34% of all jobs in the hospitality sector. The ease of entry into the tourism job market still appeals to new migrants, particularly in jobs that are not consumer facing and where a knowledge of English is not a requirement. The authors were correct but did not foresee the scale of migrant employment in tourism. Source: Filimonau and Mika (2019) | Partially correct |
| The first generation of migrants will have little desire to visit their home countries, but the second generation will visit their parents' homelands | There has certainly been an interest in developing the diaspora market, as shown in marketing campaigns by the Canadian, Irish and Scottish governments, but this has focused on inbound tourism rather than on outbound tourism. Although specific data on the diaspora market are unclear, in 1993, there were some 4.4m overseas visiting friends and relatives (VFR) trips by residents of the UK, and this increased to 23.5m in 2018. This increase was particularly reflected in travel from the UK to the newer EU countries. It is difficult to find data that support or refute the authors' forecast. Source: Office for National Statistics (2020a) | Probably partially correct |
| Future tourist destinations | ||
| North America and Europe will continue to be the main tourism generating countries | These markets are still the main tourism generating countries in terms of absolute outbound tourists. In 2018, Europe accounted for 48% of outbound tourists and America 17%, while Asia/Pacific accounted for 26% of such trips. Over the last 30 years, there has been substantial absolute and relative growth in outbound tourists from Asia, increasing from a world share of 13% in 1990 to 26% in 2018. The authors failed to foresee this growth in the Asian market. Source: UNWTO (2019) | Partially correct |
| If European destinations reach full capacity, tourists may look to North Africa, Asia Minor and the Black Sea | Although there is little doubt that some specific European destinations have experienced overcrowding, the authors failed to anticipate the growth in the popularity of secondary cities. There is little evidence of a substitution effect between travel to Europe and the other destinations listed. While inbound tourism to Asia has increased, travel to North Africa has not increased, due to political instability and terrorism attacks. In the case of the Black Sea, this is probably due to the demise of the influence of Russia. Source: UNWTO (2019) | No |
| North Americans may be attracted to Europe, the Middle East and probably India | Americans continue to visit Europe, but due to political instability, the Middle East is less attractive, and the appeal of India, apart from the diaspora market, is weak. Source: UNWTO (2019) | Partially correct |
| Tourism development projects will take place in the Mediterranean, Caribbean and North Africa and on the coasts of Central and South America | This is a very general statement of regional growth in tourism development, and while generally correct, this does not apply to the coastal areas of Central and South America | Partially correct |
| New developments will occur in the Pacific by the 1980s | These did occur, but they tended to be developed around self-contained/all-inclusive resorts, which favoured multinational corporations rather than the local community. Source: Bianchi (2018) | Partially correct |
| New destinations in the future will be Afghanistan, India, Ceylon, Nepal and Indonesia | Given the increase in terrorism in some of these countries (Ceylon, Afghanistan), restrictions on numbers/visa limitations (Nepal) and the poor development of tourism infrastructure (Indonesia), the anticipated growth has not developed. India has shown some growth, but the focus has been on the VFR/diaspora markets. Source: UNWTO (2019) | No |
| Politics and the future of tourism | ||
| Tourists will be unlikely to be deterred from visiting a country because of its political outlook | Although there will always be a market for exotic destinations, this growth will probably be constrained by (1) difficulty in obtaining entry visas; (2) increasing “black-listing” of destinations by the tourists' own country and (3) difficulty in obtaining travel insurance. It is unlikely that tourists in any number will travel to politically unstable countries, so this suggestion is only partially correct | Partially correct |
| War/terrorism will continue to be a deterrent to tourism | This is not only seen in countries such as Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, but also in some nearby European destinations, such as Lebanon, Libya, Syria and Egypt. Generally, in mainland Europe, terrorism appears to have little impact on major destinations, such as Spain, France, Germany and the UK. This suggestion is generally correct | Yes |
| Future of tourism to Britain | ||
| Britain will lack adequate accommodation for overseas tourists | While this may have been true, the growth in branded budget hotels, with their centralised reservations systems, credit card payments and consumer reviews on social media sites, was not foreseen. Indeed, the authors dismissed the idea of budget hotels. Source: Rahimi and Kozak (2017) | No |
| Inflation may be an issue in driving up costs. Weak sterling will attract tourists | This is not an issue today, with many years of low inflation, while the weakness of sterling may have contributed to the growth of tourism from both Europe and the USA. However, there is little evidence that any weakness in the value of sterling has deterred UK residents from travelling to either Europe or the USA. | No |
| London and parts of the UK may have reached a “tourist saturation point”, but through tourism management, both residents and visitors “happily live together” | Given the emphasis in the UK in the early 1970s on tourism as a growth sector, it was insightful to acknowledge the possible negative impacts of this growth. Now labelled as “overtourism”, the solution presented by the authors was through the management of tourism; however, as tourism authorities have no real power to manage growth, the idea that residents and visitors can “happily live together” seems naive. However, in the UK, national parks that have both development control powers and tourism marketing functions may provide a possible model for the future management of tourism | Yes and No |
| Issue/topic | Comment on forecast | Success of forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Most tourism trips will continue to originate from North America and Western Europe | In 2019, almost 41m overseas trips were made to the UK, with the USA accounting for 5.4m of these trips and Europe for 27.3m. Source: | Yes |
| By 2000, the population in the UK will increase by 10m, and by 50m and in the USA. | In 1973, the UK population was 56.2m, and by 2000, it was 58.9m; it did not increase by 10m until 2018 (66.4 m). In 1973, the USA population was 215m; in 2000, it was 282m (an increase of 57 m). Their population projections were underestimated. Source: | Partially correct |
| In the UK, by the early 1980s the number of over 60s will increase to almost 20% of the population | In 1971, the over 60s accounted for 19.9% of the UK population, while in 1981, the figure was 20.3%. Source: | Yes |
| In the 1970s, the number of married working women in the UK will continue to increase | Reflecting changes in data collection methods, this type of data is no longer available. However, the proportion of women aged 16-64 in the UK workforce increased from 53% in 1970 to 56% in 1980 and 72% in 2020. The change did not occur in the 1970s but some four decades later. Source: | Partially correct |
| Holiday entitlement in the UK will increase from the current 3 weeks | In 2020, the statutory minimum holiday entitlement in the UK is 4 weeks or 5 weeks including public holidays. In practice, 6 weeks (including public holidays) is the norm. Source: | Yes |
| Private cars will remain the most common mode of holiday transport. Controlled access through advance reservation and pricing systems for vulnerable attractions, such as the Lake District, could become common | The car remains the most common form of holiday transport for the UK, accounting for 82% of all holiday trips, but for overseas tourists, public transport dominates. While during normal periods, there are no restrictions on travel to areas such as the lake district, this concern about capacity was insightful. Sources: | Partially correct |
| If a channel tunnel is built, it will be seen as an extra ferry service, not as a new mode of transport. French visitors to London would increase | In 2019, French tourists' methods for accessing the UK were as follows: 1.23m by air, 0.44m by sea and 1.62m via the Channel tunnel. London accounted for some 1.8m (52%) of all French visitors, but over the decade from 2009 to 2019, numbers declined. The suggestion that the tunnel would be seen as an extra ferry service is open to question. They also failed to anticipate the development of low-cost airlines with direct flights to/from UK/French secondary cities. Source: | No |
| The propensity of the UK population to take a holiday will not increase over 60%, but the frequency will increase | In 2018, some 85% of the UK population took a holiday. The data suggests that much of this increase was driven by the increase in short breaks; this growth was unforeseen by the authors. Source: | Partially correct |
| International tourists will increase from 169m in 1979 to 250–280m by 1980 | In 1980, there were 278m international tourists, and this increased to 1,400m in 2018. Source: | Yes |
| Japan's outbound market will grow, and this will have a significant impact on international tourism across the world | Outbound tourist from Japan did increase from 2.3m in 1973 to 4.0m in 1980 and 21.1m in 2019. However, the real growth in Japanese outbound tourism did not occur until the 1990s. In the UK, Japanese tourists declined from 556,000 in 2000 to 390,000 in 2018. The forecast was sound, despite it occurring later than suggested. Source: | Partially correct |
| The Black population of the USA will enjoy 10 years of rising income in the 1970s but may look to travel to their ethnic origins in Africa | Given that household income is a key driver of holidays, in 2018, the mean white household income in the USA was $90k, but it was $59k for Black households. This suggests that Black Americans are less likely to take holidays. In addition, they are also reluctant to travel to Africa because they think they will not be welcome there. Sources: | No |
| The Eastern European market will grow, but this may just result from a shift from Russia to the Mediterranean, rather than an increase in their overall travel | The growth in outbound tourism from Eastern Europe was not driven by a shift in markets but rather by their independence from Russia, along with their subsequent membership of the EU, which provided visa-free travel to the EU. The authors failed to foresee changes to political structures. Source: | No |
| New migrants, if they work in tourism, will start at the bottom of the economic ladder | In the UK, legal migrants account for between 23% and 34% of all jobs in the hospitality sector. The ease of entry into the tourism job market still appeals to new migrants, particularly in jobs that are not consumer facing and where a knowledge of English is not a requirement. The authors were correct but did not foresee the scale of migrant employment in tourism. Source: | Partially correct |
| The first generation of migrants will have little desire to visit their home countries, but the second generation will visit their parents' homelands | There has certainly been an interest in developing the diaspora market, as shown in marketing campaigns by the Canadian, Irish and Scottish governments, but this has focused on inbound tourism rather than on outbound tourism. Although specific data on the diaspora market are unclear, in 1993, there were some 4.4m overseas visiting friends and relatives (VFR) trips by residents of the UK, and this increased to 23.5m in 2018. This increase was particularly reflected in travel from the UK to the newer EU countries. It is difficult to find data that support or refute the authors' forecast. Source: | Probably partially correct |
| North America and Europe will continue to be the main tourism generating countries | These markets are still the main tourism generating countries in terms of absolute outbound tourists. In 2018, Europe accounted for 48% of outbound tourists and America 17%, while Asia/Pacific accounted for 26% of such trips. Over the last 30 years, there has been substantial absolute and relative growth in outbound tourists from Asia, increasing from a world share of 13% in 1990 to 26% in 2018. The authors failed to foresee this growth in the Asian market. Source: | Partially correct |
| If European destinations reach full capacity, tourists may look to North Africa, Asia Minor and the Black Sea | Although there is little doubt that some specific European destinations have experienced overcrowding, the authors failed to anticipate the growth in the popularity of secondary cities. There is little evidence of a substitution effect between travel to Europe and the other destinations listed. While inbound tourism to Asia has increased, travel to North Africa has not increased, due to political instability and terrorism attacks. In the case of the Black Sea, this is probably due to the demise of the influence of Russia. Source: | No |
| North Americans may be attracted to Europe, the Middle East and probably India | Americans continue to visit Europe, but due to political instability, the Middle East is less attractive, and the appeal of India, apart from the diaspora market, is weak. Source: | Partially correct |
| Tourism development projects will take place in the Mediterranean, Caribbean and North Africa and on the coasts of Central and South America | This is a very general statement of regional growth in tourism development, and while generally correct, this does not apply to the coastal areas of Central and South America | Partially correct |
| New developments will occur in the Pacific by the 1980s | These did occur, but they tended to be developed around self-contained/all-inclusive resorts, which favoured multinational corporations rather than the local community. Source: | Partially correct |
| New destinations in the future will be Afghanistan, India, Ceylon, Nepal and Indonesia | Given the increase in terrorism in some of these countries (Ceylon, Afghanistan), restrictions on numbers/visa limitations (Nepal) and the poor development of tourism infrastructure (Indonesia), the anticipated growth has not developed. India has shown some growth, but the focus has been on the VFR/diaspora markets. Source: | No |
| Tourists will be unlikely to be deterred from visiting a country because of its political outlook | Although there will always be a market for exotic destinations, this growth will probably be constrained by (1) difficulty in obtaining entry visas; (2) increasing “black-listing” of destinations by the tourists' own country and (3) difficulty in obtaining travel insurance. It is unlikely that tourists in any number will travel to politically unstable countries, so this suggestion is only partially correct | Partially correct |
| War/terrorism will continue to be a deterrent to tourism | This is not only seen in countries such as Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, but also in some nearby European destinations, such as Lebanon, Libya, Syria and Egypt. Generally, in mainland Europe, terrorism appears to have little impact on major destinations, such as Spain, France, Germany and the UK. This suggestion is generally correct | Yes |
| Britain will lack adequate accommodation for overseas tourists | While this may have been true, the growth in branded budget hotels, with their centralised reservations systems, credit card payments and consumer reviews on social media sites, was not foreseen. Indeed, the authors dismissed the idea of budget hotels. Source: | No |
| Inflation may be an issue in driving up costs. Weak sterling will attract tourists | This is not an issue today, with many years of low inflation, while the weakness of sterling may have contributed to the growth of tourism from both Europe and the USA. However, there is little evidence that any weakness in the value of sterling has deterred UK residents from travelling to either Europe or the USA. | No |
| London and parts of the UK may have reached a “tourist saturation point”, but through tourism management, both residents and visitors “happily live together” | Given the emphasis in the UK in the early 1970s on tourism as a growth sector, it was insightful to acknowledge the possible negative impacts of this growth. Now labelled as “overtourism”, the solution presented by the authors was through the management of tourism; however, as tourism authorities have no real power to manage growth, the idea that residents and visitors can “happily live together” seems naive. However, in the UK, national parks that have both development control powers and tourism marketing functions may provide a possible model for the future management of tourism | Yes and No |
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