Table 4 Forecast accuracy for the 7... | Emerald Publishing

Table 4

Forecast accuracy for the 7 series' level and log-transformed test samples under one-step forecast

Forecast method 1 – ARIMA for test sample of level series at one-step forecast
Accuracy measure	Routes
Accuracy measure	SEAFI composite ARIMA(3,1,2)	Singapore ARIMA(1,0,3)	Vietnam ARIMA(0,1,4)	Thailand ARIMA(1,1,0)	The Philippines ARIMA(0,1,2)	Malaysia ARIMA(1,1,0)	Indonesia ARIMA(3,1,2)	Mean
RMSE	41.919	6.458	27.598	5.348	2.612	5.917	12.994	14.692
MAPE	4.239	2.718	8.912	2.983	2.632	2.15	3.826	3.923
ACF1	0.158	0.2	0.432	0.69	−0.066	0.509	0.605	0.361

Forecast method 1 – ARIMA for test sample of level series at one-step forecast
Accuracy measure	Routes
Accuracy measure	SEAFI composite ARIMA(3,1,2)	Singapore ARIMA(1,0,3)	Vietnam ARIMA(0,1,4)	Thailand ARIMA(1,1,0)	The Philippines ARIMA(0,1,2)	Malaysia ARIMA(1,1,0)	Indonesia ARIMA(3,1,2)	Mean
RMSE	41.919	6.458	27.598	5.348	2.612	5.917	12.994	14.692
MAPE	4.239	2.718	8.912	2.983	2.632	2.15	3.826	3.923
ACF1	0.158	0.2	0.432	0.69	−0.066	0.509	0.605	0.361

Forecast method 2 – SNNAR for test sample of level series at one-step forecast
Accuracy measure	Routes
Accuracy measure	SEAFI composite SNNAR(2,1,2)	Singapore SNNAR(2,1,2)	Vietnam SNNAR(2,1,2)	Thailand SNNAR(2,1,2)	The Philippines SNNAR(7,1,4)	Malaysia SNNAR(2,1,2)	Indonesia SNNAR(2,1,2)	Average
RMSE	64.379	11.843	36.811	15.006	14.135	14.314	19.091	25.083
MAPE	7.314	5.475	10.497	7.657	18.386	5.925	5.397	8.664
ACF1	0.437	0.284	0.537	0.442	0.219	0.341	0.001	0.323

Forecast method 2 – SNNAR for test sample of level series at one-step forecast
Accuracy measure	Routes
Accuracy measure	SEAFI composite SNNAR(2,1,2)	Singapore SNNAR(2,1,2)	Vietnam SNNAR(2,1,2)	Thailand SNNAR(2,1,2)	The Philippines SNNAR(7,1,4)	Malaysia SNNAR(2,1,2)	Indonesia SNNAR(2,1,2)	Average
RMSE	64.379	11.843	36.811	15.006	14.135	14.314	19.091	25.083
MAPE	7.314	5.475	10.497	7.657	18.386	5.925	5.397	8.664
ACF1	0.437	0.284	0.537	0.442	0.219	0.341	0.001	0.323

Forecast method 1 – ARIMA for test sample of log-transformed series at one-step forecast
Accuracy measure	Routes
Accuracy measure	SEAFI composite ARIMA(0,1,3)	Singapore ARIMA(5,0,0)	Vietnam ARIMA(1,1,0)	Thailand ARIMA(1,1,0)	The Philippines ARIMA(0,1,2)	Malaysia ARIMA(1,1,0)	Indonesia ARIMA(3,1,2)	Average
RMSE	0.048	0.0562	0.113	0.042	0.261	0.035	0.047	0.086
MAPE	0.527	0.754	1.475	0.719	2.326	0.451	0.675	0.990
ACF1	0.453	0.397	0.413	0.672	−0.066	0.453	0.559	0.412

Forecast method 1 – ARIMA for test sample of log-transformed series at one-step forecast
Accuracy measure	Routes
Accuracy measure	SEAFI composite ARIMA(0,1,3)	Singapore ARIMA(5,0,0)	Vietnam ARIMA(1,1,0)	Thailand ARIMA(1,1,0)	The Philippines ARIMA(0,1,2)	Malaysia ARIMA(1,1,0)	Indonesia ARIMA(3,1,2)	Average
RMSE	0.048	0.0562	0.113	0.042	0.261	0.035	0.047	0.086
MAPE	0.527	0.754	1.475	0.719	2.326	0.451	0.675	0.990
ACF1	0.453	0.397	0.413	0.672	−0.066	0.453	0.559	0.412

Forecast method 2 – SNNAR for test sample of log-transformed series at one-step forecast
Accuracy measure	Routes
Accuracy measure	SEAFI composite SNNAR(2,1,2)	Singapore SNNAR (1,1,2)	Vietnam SNNAR (2,1,2)	Thailand SNNAR (2,1,2)	The Philippines SNNAR(7,1,4)	Malaysia SNNAR(2,1,2)	Indonesia SNNAR(2,1,2)	Average
RMSE	0.113	0.087	0.167	0.11	1.393	0.094	0.072	0.291
MAPE	1.416	1.102	2.113	1.818	13.06	1.267	0.964	3.106
ACF1	0.432	0.372	−0.087	0.37	0.105	0.39	−0.042	0.220

Forecast method 2 – SNNAR for test sample of log-transformed series at one-step forecast
Accuracy measure	Routes
Accuracy measure	SEAFI composite SNNAR(2,1,2)	Singapore SNNAR (1,1,2)	Vietnam SNNAR (2,1,2)	Thailand SNNAR (2,1,2)	The Philippines SNNAR(7,1,4)	Malaysia SNNAR(2,1,2)	Indonesia SNNAR(2,1,2)	Average
RMSE	0.113	0.087	0.167	0.11	1.393	0.094	0.072	0.291
MAPE	1.416	1.102	2.113	1.818	13.06	1.267	0.964	3.106
ACF1	0.432	0.372	−0.087	0.37	0.105	0.39	−0.042	0.220

Source(s): Authors’ work